With Rory McIlroy and Victor Hovland sitting atop the leaderboard at the 150th Open Championship after posting matching 66s on Saturday, the golfing world heads into Sunday’s final round wondering if we will see a historic finish to what has already was an exciting anniversary edition of the world’s oldest golf championship.
Breaking his eight-year major drought at St. Andrews will be one of the biggest stories of the year in golf, especially given the way he’s played in a major championship so far this season with a top 10 at the Masters (2nd) , PGA Championship (8th) and US Open (T5). A win for Hovland would cement his place among golf’s rising stars, adding him to a major championship in 2022 that will have all four winners under the age of 30.
But what if the winner of the Bordeaux Jug doesn’t come from the final pair? What if someone charges with a small number and our two co-leaders come back to the group? So who has the best chance of catching McIlroy and Hovland on Sunday?
Historically, the record for comeback in the final round at The Open is held by Paul Lowry’s shot from 10 strokes back to make a three-man playoff and eventually win. But the chances of McIlroy and/or Hovland blowing a three-shot lead on the 18th hole, as Jean van de Velde did at Carnoustie that year, look unlikely. More recent and realistic examples of remarkable comebacks in the final round of The Open include Padraig Harrington winning by six shots in 2007, Ernie Els winning by six in 2012 and Phil Mickelson winning by five in 2013.
But none of them were in St. Andrews. The winner of every 72-hole edition of The Open played at St Andrews was within four shots of the lead heading into the final, capturing the Claret Jug all 22 times, according to Justin Ray. As such, here are the five contenders who could potentially catch the leaders at the 150th Open on Sunday. Odds via Caesars Sportsbook
Cameron Smith (-12): After two days of doing almost everything on the greens, Smith didn’t hit his shots with the same consistency Saturday as the 54-hole championship leader. Although he wasn’t making as many birdies, Smith was able to hold his round together until he double-bogeyed No. 13. Those errors and mistakes didn’t cost him too many places in the rankings, but those two shots would have put him in a much better position. position to catch the leaders. At this point, he has to not only shoot somewhere near 65 or 66, but also hope that neither McIlroy nor Hovland score in the 60s. Odds: 11-1
Cameron Young (-12): One of the PGA Tour’s hottest rookies turned in an impressive performance in his Open debut, including how he saved a 1-under 71 despite two bogeys and double-bogey from his spot in the final pair. After a 64 on Thursday, a 69 on Friday and then a 71 on Saturday, it would be remarkable to see him reverse the trend and return to that early tournament form. But that’s not usually the way things go, especially with players early in their major careers. Odds: 25-1
Scotty Scheffler (-11): A strong 3-under 69 moved the reigning Masters champion up one spot in the rankings and a little closer to being able to challenge for a second major in this stellar 2022 season. Scheffler had his best day of the tournament so far when it comes to approach shots on those Old Course greens, and it paid off to putt five birdies on the day. Scheffler is a high-floor proposition where you can almost count on a 68 or 69 on Sunday, but this result will still leave him without lifting the Claret Jug unless Rory and Hovland fire above par. Si Woo Kim is 11 under with Scheffler but has never finished in the top 10 in 22 major starts. Odds: 20-1
Dustin Johnson (-10): With the length to drive the short par-4 green and the knack for putting it up, St. Andrews looked set up well for Johnson to challenge for his third major title. Unfortunately, those efforts fell short on Saturday afternoon, as DJ had as many bogeys in his final six holes (three) as in the first two rounds combined. He has the potential to drop really low on Sunday, but the way he was knocked down by the mounds and bunkers of the Old Course late in the third round does not bode well for an epic comeback. Odds: 50-1
2022 Open Championship Last Chance Picks
Kyle Porter, senior golf writer: There are countless reasons why McIlroy won the 150th Open. He did an unimaginably good job of not allowing himself to get carried away emotionally during this highly emotional week. His game is as polished as it’s been in the past year and he’s firing to prove it. St. Andrews is a magical place and Rory’s victory in the same week that Tiger Woods walked off the stage immediately following two of the greatest victories in golf history at this course is so incredible that it seems like it could only happen on the Old Course . Pick: Rory McIlroy (10/11)
Chip Patterson, writer: There’s no reason to overdo it: Even the data says there’s a little better than a 50 percent chance McIlroy can overtake Hovland and hold off the chase on Sunday. The confidence he’s shown all week backs up the analytics, and it’s time for a generational talent to be rewarded with another Hall of Fame career highlight. McIlroy has never finished in the top 10 at all four majors in one season, and he is poised to not only do so, but also to end his eight-year major drought at St. Andrews. Pick: Rory McIlroy (10/11)
Patrick MacDonald, golf writer: McIlroy is riding a wave of momentum and can’t seem to do wrong on the Old Course. This week was a throwback to 2014, when he often played with the perfect combination of aggression and discipline. Eight years later, he would lift the Claret Jug again and join Seve Ballesteros and Byron Nelson as five-time major champions. Pick: Rory McIlroy (10/11)
Kyle Boone, Writer: How Back is Too Back? Is five shots – under these conditions, on this course, with this star-studded ranking – too many? According to Justin Ray, no winner of an Open tournament held at St Andrews has won after trailing by more than four strokes at the 54-hole mark. Still, it seems plausible regarding Scheffler. After seeing Justin Thomas climb out of a seven-shot hole entering Round 4 of the PGA Championship in May, Scheffler picking up the Claret Jug on Sunday doesn’t seem out of the question. He played well all week, ranked second in the field in strokes gained on approach and has the upside to make a huge rally if his putter starts to roll. Pick: Scotty Scheffler (20-1)
Adam Silverstein, editor-in-chief: Just because he stopped winning doesn’t mean McIlroy has struggled to play well in majors. Since 2014, he has 16 top 10s in 30 such chances, with three of those coming this year alone. The problem is that McIlroy usually either gets off to a slow start or loses a low Round 1 score, often coming through the back door. That’s not the case this week as McIlroy remains consistently hot with 66-68-66 scores through the first three rounds. Rory clearly has the equivalent of home-court advantage at St Andrews – the crowd is emotionally invested in his success – but he was able to block it out and play calm, smart golf. What better way to end an eight-year drought than to win a 150th Open? Pick: Rory McIlroy (10/11)
Rick Gehman and Greg DuCharme take a look at the odds board for Sunday’s Open Championship. Follow and listen to The First Cut on Apple Podcasts and Spotify.
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