From a seemingly unassailable position in 2019, Boris Johnson’s Conservatives have lost both their consistent poll lead over Labor and two by-elections on the trot.
Partygate and the cost of living crisis mean that if there is an election tomorrow, Johnson’s 2019 majority will likely be wiped out and Keir Starmer will find himself in Downing Street. Much analysis has therefore focused on which voters are moving away from the Conservatives and how this is reflected in different constituencies.
The recent changes in voting intentions come after a decade-long political realignment. Older voters, especially pensioners, turned to the Conservatives, while younger graduates, especially those in big cities, turned to Labour.
However, this trend has left an increasingly important group of voters under-discussed and under-analyzed. What about those working-age voters who live outside the big cities and don’t have degrees? Given that political analysis is now only considered legitimate if it has a fun-sounding name attached, we’ve dubbed these voters “Wand” (workable without a degree).
In the 2019 Conservative landslide, Wands voted roughly in line with the country – with 31% support for Labor and 43% for the Conservatives. However, our latest poll with Progressive Britain shows that Labor now has a five-point lead among this group – on 38%, compared to the Tories’ 33%.
Among Wand voters who supported the Conservatives at the last election, only 54% say they would still support the party at tomorrow’s election. One in nine (11%) would go straight to Labour, while 27% don’t know who they would support.
And while his personality has no doubt helped in 2019, almost two-thirds (64%) of Wands now have an unfavorable opinion of the Prime Minister, compared to just 26% who have a favorable opinion.
These shifts matter because, although unaccounted for, this group makes up a large portion of the population. Based on our definition, 37% of voters are wands – far more, for example, than pensioners, who make up just 18% of the population.
And Wands are much more likely to live in the constituencies that Labor needs to win to get a majority. This includes many “red wall” constituencies such as West Bromwich West, Stoke-on-Trent North and Ashfield. But it also includes other marginal areas such as Peterborough, Corby, Swindon and Milton Keynes.
In fact, of the 93 most marginal constituencies that Labor will be trying to win from the Conservatives, most voters in 83 of them are working-age people without degrees. More than six in 10 (62%) of those who live in Wakefield, where Labor recently made an impressive election gain, are Wand voters.
Given that they are so important, it’s worth asking: what do Wand voters want? And what can parties do to win their support?
First, Wands are more socially conservative than voters in general, with 59% voting to leave the European Union in 2016. This is likely why support for the Conservatives among this group has increased in recent elections.
However, as research by Jane Green of the University of Oxford and Rosmarien de Gus of the University of Reading has found, Poles are also the most economically insecure group of voters. They are the least likely to have money in their bank account to finance emergency expenses and the most likely to suffer from the cost of living crisis.
Because of their lack of economic security, Wands are more “wage-driven” than other voter groups. When deciding whether to support a policy, they are more likely to think about the impact it would have on themselves and their family, and less likely to care about the impact it would have on the country as a whole.
In recent months, this personal economic interest has become more important than their socially conservative views. While most constituencies think the cost of living is the most important issue facing the country, Wand voters are even more likely to think so. In our latest survey, 53% said it was one of the most important political issues right now.
Ultimately, the battle for this group will come down to hard economics. Whichever party offers them a realistic vision of how to improve their personal financial situation in difficult times is likely to win their support.
And given the electoral importance of Wand voters, the party that can win their support will win the next election.
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Chris Curtis, Head of Policy Research, Opinium
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Tom Colling, head of policy and communications at Progressive Britain, also contributed to this article
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