The 1922 Committee – the organizing body for Conservative MPs – faces an important decision on Wednesday night. If its members believe the mood of their colleagues is that the prime minister should face an immediate further test of his popularity after the failure of Chris Pincher and a series of government resignations, they could allow a further vote of confidence in the prime minister. But the threshold for such a vote will be significantly increased to avoid the accusation that the commission is somehow in vendetta against the prime minister and trampling on the party’s internal rules of democracy.
The new occasion for a vote of confidence will be that the chairman of the ’22 committee, Sir Graham Brady, will have to receive letters of no confidence equivalent to a simple majority of MPs.
To state the obvious, if more than half of MPs write such letters, it will be obvious that the Prime Minister has lost the argument, so it will be difficult for him to say that another vote is deeply dishonest. Existing rules say there must be no further confidence vote until next June, with the threshold for such a vote being just 15% of Tory MPs. Such an urgent change in the rules of Committee ’22 is being actively advertised and debated by Conservative MPs, such is the seriousness of the crisis they fear they face. The point is that unless they make this change at their meeting on Wednesday night, it is more or less impossible for the parliamentary stages of the leadership contest to be completed before Parliament rises for the summer in two weeks’ time.
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So for those MPs who want Boris Johnson kicked out now, tonight’s 1922 meeting is their last hope. What is more likely to happen, however, is that the ’22 Committee, under the leadership of Sir Graham Brady, will begin a new committee election next Wednesday. And then this new committee can change the rules for selecting leadership next Wednesday. But with MPs going on holiday the following day, the prime minister can be assured of keeping his job at least through the summer break. So tonight’s meeting on the 22nd will decide whether the Prime Minister is in danger of being ousted in the coming days, or whether his moment of truth will be delayed until the autumn.
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