The trade
Senators get: Right wing Alex DeBrincat.
Blackhawks receive: First-round pick, No. 7, and second-round pick, No. 39, in 2022 and third-round pick in 2024.
Sean Gentile: Throughout the “Should Chicago trade Alex DeBrincat” debate, I maintained the same basic stance. Was it embarrassing and sad that the Blackhawks were shopping a 24-year-old with 40 goals? yes But that didn’t make it a bad decision either.
The reasons were reasonable enough—Chicago’s roster is too far gone to save thanks to Stan Baumann’s sweaty, desperate 2021 offseason that should have fired him on merit. The moral failure brought in Bowman instead of bringing in Seth Jones, but the bottom line remained unchanged. He’s made Chicago terrible without trying to be – which takes real effort in the NHL – and now it’s time to strip him down.
DeBrincat, aside from Patrick Kane, was new GM Kyle Davidson’s most valuable asset. It wasn’t a hard decision…just a rough one. They are not good and won’t be for a while. Also, why would DeBrincat sign a new deal with them? Why would he sign up to spend his best years in purgatory? He will be good in five years. The Blackhawks, thanks to Bowman, won’t have them.
Anyway, here we are. DeBrincat is a senator, not a devil, and the Blackhawks turned a dollar into a quarter and two dimes. A return like that started to feel inevitable when we saw reports that New Jersey’s No. 2 pick wouldn’t be enough for Chicago.
What’s so mind-blowing about this DeBrincat trade is how unnecessary it was. He didn’t want to go out. He wasn’t a problem. He signed for next year. He is 24.
Kyle Davidson said last week that he won’t “force” anything. This feels REALLY forced.
— Mark Lazerus (@MarkLazerus) July 7, 2022
They were looking for a quantity that rarely comes, and that’s what this return represents. I am not a perspective person; However, I know that “No. 2″ is better than “No. 7” and that the value we can expect from the other two elements is not enough to move the meter. Ultimately, that’s why I hate this Blackhawks deal. We know in general terms what they gave up and it doesn’t look good. At all.
As for Ottawa? DeBrincat will fit alongside one of the best young cores in the league, and he represents something a little bigger than his stats. The Sens do, and that matters. I’m going to make two risky assumptions here — that DeBrincat signs an extension with the Sens, and that it’s nothing out of the ordinary. If that happens? Big W for Pierre Dorion. What a time to be alive.
Senators: ABlackhawks: D
Why did the Blackhawks feel they had to trade Alex DeBrincat now? Why was the return less than most expected? What does this mean for the coming years? My column on Kyle Davidson’s bold move:
— Scott Powers (@ByScottPowers) July 7, 2022
Dom Luszczyszyn: This is an extremely intriguing deal for both parties. At first, it seemed odd that Chicago would trade DeBrincat at all given his age and ability — an overcorrection for last year’s Seth Jones debacle. But if the team recognizes that it won’t be competitive to fit into DeBrincat’s timeline, it makes sense to get maximum return at what could be the peak of his value. That’s especially true with one year left on his contract and a juicy $9 million qualifying offer waiting on the other side.
It’s the qualifying offer that makes things interesting for Ottawa because it doesn’t give the Senators much time to prove they’re a team worth hanging on to. There’s a real chance DeBrincat could be gone in two years, and that’s the big risk here.
But it’s a risk worth taking given Ottawa’s current chronology. The Senators needed to make a big splash and get a real player who could move the needle in a significant way to take the team to the next level. Away from the basement. They can’t afford to get stuck. DeBrincat does so as one of the league’s top scorers, scoring 41 goals last season. Only seven players are expected to score more goals than DeBrincat next season – although the absence of Patrick Kane could affect that expectation.
Whether or not this trade is worth it depends on how long DeBrincat stays in Ottawa. The combined expected value of the three picks Ottawa traded — seventh, 39th and a 2024 third-round pick — equates to roughly 10 wins over the next seven seasons. DeBrincat is worth roughly three wins per season and should reach that 10-win goal over the next four years. If he leaves before then, the Senators won’t get their money’s worth here.
For Chicago, that calculation makes the deal more palatable, assuming DeBrincat wouldn’t stick around for a long and painful rebuild anyway. Adding DeBrincat to an up-and-coming team suddenly makes Ottawa a group worth paying attention to in the Atlantic. The Senators have had trouble keeping top players in the past, but if the club can return to its winning ways, things could be different this time around.
Senators: A-Blackhawks: B
Corey Pronman: DeBrincat is a legitimate NHL star winger. He was an extremely productive goalscorer. His skills and hockey sense are top notch and he has a great shot. His undersized wing skating has never been his strong suit, but he competes hard and is smart enough to overcome those issues. His deal expires soon and he’s not far from being a free agent, but assuming Ottawa can extend him, he becomes a key veteran who can help the organization take the next step of this rebuild.
Chicago, on the other hand, is full and just beginning its recovery. We will see who they choose with the elections. The No. 7 pick, especially, should give them a quality top-six forward or top-four defenseman down the line.
Chicago is getting the future assets they need, but it hurts and speaks volumes for a long, painful rebuild ahead — especially getting just one true premium asset in this deal.
Blackhawks: BSenators: B+
(Photo: Dennis Wierzbicki/USA Today)
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