The 2022 MLB Draft is just a few days away, and it’s time for my third mock draft, which predicts the full first day with 80 picks from this year’s event.
The draft will take place July 17-19 in Los Angeles, and I’m guessing that later on Friday and Saturday the last useful information will leak out (hype day is a useless misdirection), leading to a final Mock 3.1 here on Sunday morning. Teams are currently finalizing plans and communicating expectations with agents, with numbers and more specific plans pending over the weekend.
This is the order in which I think the picks will come off the board, while my rankings (linked below) are the order in which I would pick the players.
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1. Baltimore Orioles
Druw Jones, CF, Wesleyan HS (GA), Vanderbilt commit
Jones has been rumored for a few weeks to be a full-cargo option here, and Termar Johnson is the most likely of the other options because he would come at the biggest discount due to the likely drop to the sixth pick if he doesn’t go here . I said I think it’s about a ⅔ chance for Jones and a ⅓ chance for “other,” with Johnson the overwhelming choice, but Jackson Holliday (probably between Jones and Johnson) has also been mentioned as the other leading candidate. The savings to use later in the draft by going with Johnson could be $2 million or more and at this point even I would entertain taking my second player (Johnson) over my highest rated player (Jones ). Anyone outside of those three would be much harder to explain. On the day they sign, I’d have all three of them near the top 100 of minor leaguers: Jones at 24th, Johnson at 30th and Holiday at 36th, with no one else in that class making the cut in the top 75.
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This is remarkably similar to the situation that landed Astros SS Carlos Correa as the top pick in the 2012 draft when current Orioles GM Mike Elias was Houston’s scouting director. Correa signed for $2.4 million under the slot and Houston used the savings to sign Lance McCullers as the No. 41 pick.
The two factors that will help dictate this decision for Elias are 1) what’s the difference in his mind between Johnson and Jones and 2) who does he think he could get those extra savings that might not be attainable otherwise?
You need a player who is worth/wanting $3.5M or more and can get on the board to pick 33. A few weeks ago, Oklahoma RHP Cade Horton was a candidate and still could be, but now it looks like he’s winning t came out of the middle of the first round. Illinois prep LHP Noah Schultz is considered the hardest to sign in the draft pool, but he has the traits Baltimore likes in pitchers, could go as high as their next pick and is a legitimate mid-first-round talent with some scouts ‘ eyes.
Beyond those two, it becomes difficult to find a player well over $3 million and then Baltimore, if they opt for savings on the first pick, will have trouble stringing together $2 million players and have spent most of their money until the top of the fourth round , when all signable players of that caliber are usually selected, so it becomes a more challenging strategy. Some later draft picks include Gavin Turley, Jordan Beck (if he gets there) and Ryan Cermak.
2. Arizona Diamondbacks
Jackson Holliday, SS, Stillwater HS (OK), Oklahoma State
I think the D-backs really want Drew Jones to come here, and they could do everything possible to make that happen, financially speaking. If he doesn’t, it looks like Holiday will be the choice. Brooks Lee has long been rumored as a cut-rate option here, and I think Elijah Green is still being considered as well, but I’d bet it ends up being Jones or Holiday.
3. Texas Rangers
Kevin Parada, C, Georgia Tech
As with Arizona, I think Texas also wants Drew Jones and Jackson Holiday in this pick, and the Rangers may also do what they can to make that more likely. I think Texas will be happy with Parada here, and Elijah Green is the only other name I’ve heard linked to this pick.
4. Pittsburgh Pirates
Cam Collier, 3B, Chipola JC (Florida)
This is where the choices get tougher for handicappers. I think Pittsburgh will take Drew Jones, Jackson Holiday or Kevin Parada if they come here, and one of them will if Termar Johnson goes first. Parade may seem like an odd pick after taking another catcher out of college last year, but with robo hits likely to come, a versatile DH is already here and Henry Davis/Parada are both hit-first guys with some chance to contribute to others positions, it feels like a modern approach to the position to keep both fresh.
Beyond those three, Collier looks like the leading candidate. He’ll probably go No. 7 or 8 if he doesn’t go here, so that will come with little, if any, savings. Campbell SS Zach Neto is picking up speed of late and will come with a lot more savings. I tend to think that if Baltimore takes Drew Jones, Pittsburgh won’t have Jones/Holiday/Parada to choose from, so the Pirates could see an opportunity to go first in the remaining pool money by making a tough deal for lower positions here – with Netto the likely candidate.
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That seems less likely if Baltimore takes a cheaper option with the first pick, so think of it as an either/or for Pittsburgh or Baltimore. The potential prize for having the top pick on their next pick for Pittsburgh would be a $3.5 million player (Brock Porter is a candidate along with the aforementioned Noah Schultz) that other teams probably couldn’t afford to take.
Elijah Green and (to a lesser extent) Cade Horton have some buzz here, but I think Parade, Collier and Neto cover the different scenarios. If they play him close to slot value with their next pick, prep 2B Nick Morabito is a target.
5. Washington Nationals
Jacob Berry, RF, LSU
Washington has historically gone for big upside with its first pick, and that would seem to scream for Elijah Green here — but there isn’t much of a connection between the two at this point. It was all college talk and I think Parada is the preference, with Berry as the second option. Brooks Lee also makes some sense here.
6. Miami Marlins
Termar Johnson, 2B, Mays HS (GA), Arizona State
If Druw Jones goes first, I think Termarr Johnson is drawing some interest at the No. 4 pick, but he’ll be on the outside looking in, and then he’ll land here — with the Cubs pissed they won’t get a shot at him. The Marlins also appear, like every team, to have interest in Jones, Holiday and Parade if they come here, with Jacob Berry also an option. If their board “implodes” or all the players they want go right in front of them, I think we could see a surprise bottom slot move here, with a little chatter they could go grab the top pitcher in the draft (Cade Horton? Connor Prielipp?) for savings, then try to spend those savings on your next two picks.
7. Chicago Cubs
Elijah Green, CF, IMG Academy HS (FL), Miami
As you may have noticed, Green makes some level of sense and has been in the mix for almost every team before this. He might have the highest draft potential I’ve ever seen, but also some troubling slugging percentages in the showcase game. That’s a big floor-to-ceiling gap, and if he gets past this pick, I think the most likely landing spot is above the slot for the Mets at pick #11, which is about as far as he can go.
Zach Neto and Connor Prielipp are sub-slot options here, and the Cubs hope to land Cam Collier or Termarr Johnson, who both fall short in this scenario. I think they have interest in Brooks Lee here, but Green’s upside seems like a can’t-miss situation. I think they would like to take Carson Wisenhunt with their second pick.
8. Minnesota Twins
Brooks Lee, 3B, Cal Poly
The twins actually sit at the end of this level and hope for some surprise ahead of them so that one player gets here. I think Lee is just that, and I’m not sure Minnesota would take Elijah Green if he’s the top-tier guy that’s come this far — especially if he’s trying to get a few picks down to bigger money. The Twins are hoping for Cam Collier here and I think Gavin Cross is a consideration while Zach Neto is a longer hitting option. I think they would like to make SS Eric Brown their next pick at 48th overall and draft SS Demetrio Crisantes at a later pick.
9. Kansas City Royals
Gavin Cross, RF, Virginia Tech
This is where the next stage of the draft really begins, and there are plenty of rumors about what the Royals could do here. They can take the first pitcher, it could be a prep pitcher, it could be Cade Horton, it could be the best available college hitter, it could be Justin Crawford with a deal, etc. I think that’s also the area where teams themselves still don’t know who they’re going to take and are actively exploring options.
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The Royals command (all the way to the top) was in Omaha to see Horton at the College World Series, and I think he’s getting a long look from teams starting here and probably picks 15 because there’s so much interest. In a bad college year, catching fire in the biggest games. while also having a high school record to match, appears to be the most marketable of the options. I’m looking at picks 9 and 10 together since both KC and Colorado are more traditional in style and I think one of them will take Cross and the other Horton in this scenario. Later royals are mostly tied for positive results, which makes me…
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