President Biden sees himself as the Democrat with the best chance of defeating Donald Trump.
The president suffers from anemic approval ratings, with a recent poll showing a majority of Democrats do not want him to be the party’s nominee in 2024.
He faces record high inflation, a turbulent political and media environment, and deep frustration in his party over their failure to protect abortion rights and act on climate change.
No wonder many are looking for alternatives two years from now, as Democrats face the prospect of tough midterm elections where they could lose their majorities in the House and Senate.
Yet the same New York Times/Siena College poll that had terrible news for Biden also showed that he would still beat Trump in a head-to-head 44 percent to 40 percent if the next presidential election were held today.
“It’s quite clear that the strongest case for Biden 2024 is the Biden vs. Trump rematch,” said Democratic strategist Joel Payne.
In the Times poll, Biden’s approval rating hit a low of 33 percent and showed a majority of Democrats want someone other than him to run in 2024.
Still, a top Democratic donor said the poll showing Biden beating Trump, who could announce a new bid for the White House any day now, gives the president “a little life at a time when he really needs it.” .
“So many people are counting on him, but when you put it that way … when you see that he’s the only one who can win, we’d be crazy not to rally behind him. Because who else is there right now?’
Biden is running in the 2020 race to end Trump’s presidency, saying no other Democrat can run against him and win after the Republican’s shock victory over Democrat Hillary Clinton in 2020. Biden, vice president in the previous eight years, is not running in 2020 with Clinton as the party favorite.
Given Biden’s political problems, the 2024 scenario becomes a conundrum for Democrats.
Many in the party have doubts about Biden, who will be 81 in 2024. Young people are crying out for a different candidate, and the president is severely weakened politically.
Still, there are doubts about all of Biden’s potential replacements in the 2024 race. And while there’s no guarantee that Trump will win the GOP nomination in 2024 if he runs for a second term — though polls suggest he is likely – there are Democrats who see Biden as a strong candidate to run against Trump in such a scenario.
“I thought the only relevant number in this was Joe Biden beating Donald Trump,” Zach Petkanas, a former aide to Hillary Clinton’s 2016 campaign, said of The New York Times poll.
A rematch between Biden and Trump would be a historical anomaly: a president running against a former president he defeated.
“As disappointed as Democrats are with the administration, the fear of a second Trump term seems bigger than anything else,” said Julian Zelizer, a professor of history and public affairs at Princeton University.
The Times poll couldn’t have come at a better time, in some ways, for Biden, as Trump looks ever closer to announcing another presidential run.
In an interview with New York Magazine, Trump all but said he plans to announce another run for president, saying the only remaining question is whether he will do so before or after the midterm elections in November.
While Trump may have been weakened by the panel’s bombshell Jan. 6 findings and competing investigations into his conduct, polls still show him maintaining dominance among GOP voters.
Democrats would be thrilled to see Trump announce his candidacy before the midterms, which could help energize their base at a critical time.
“Trump is like a steroid stimulus for Democrats,” said Jim Kessler, executive vice president for policy at the centrist Democratic think tank Third Way. “He is the most hated politician in America, especially among Democratic voters.”
Kessler acknowledged that the November midterm elections are likely to be difficult for Democrats, but said Trump’s re-election announcement could help boost voter turnout among the base.
Biden has hinted at times that he would enjoy another matchup against Trump. He did so again this past week, telling Israel’s Channel 12 in an interview that he “wouldn’t be disappointed” by another Trump-Biden matchup.
“Biden has a lot to gain from the Trump candidacy,” said one Democratic strategist who has worked on recent presidential campaigns. “We know what that looks like. We know what the arguments are. We know that even if Biden runs, Trump energizes the base. This is the best case scenario for Biden.
Still, the strategist said Biden risks boxing himself in by playing the “I’m the only one who can beat Trump” card.
“They’re creating an interesting box for themselves if for some reason Trump decides not to run or can’t run,” the strategist said. “It’s a dangerous argument because it diminishes his strength over other Republican candidates, including someone like [Florida governor] Ron DeSantis.
There is a rare 2024 public poll at this point, but a Marquette Law School poll released in late March showed Biden ahead of three hypothetical challengers — Trump, DeSantis and former Vice President Mike Pence — by four or five points each. . But then, Biden’s approval rating was about 10 points higher than it is now.
Have you considered that Democrats aren’t actually doomed? Five takeaways from this year’s second quarter fundraising
Biden also faces a significant challenge to improve his standing with voters who have soured since his presidency amid high inflation. FiveThirtyEight earlier this week put his current average approval rating — 39 percent — as the worst of any president since the end of World War II at this point in their tenure.
Still, Biden began his presidency on a high note, and his supporters argue that Biden, unlike Trump, has a chance to bounce back when the U.S. economic situation improves.
“At a certain point, we’re going to start seeing inflation soften and, hopefully, a soft landing, and it has room to grow,” Kessler said.
Add Comment