The clock is officially ticking on a deal for Matthew Tkachuk.
On Thursday, the NHLPA announced that Calgary’s club-selected arbitration hearing with Tkachuk has been scheduled for Aug. 11. This is good news for the Flames because the time frame for those hearings is July 27th through August 11th, and having it set for the last day of that window gives them as much time as possible to find a deal.
So now we have an end date and it’s not far away.
What we know about Matthew Tkachuk not wanting to sign a long-term deal with Calgary. @TheAthletic staff offers our thoughts on this and more…
— Jeremy Rutherford (@jprutherford) July 20, 2022
Meanwhile, as Calgary works through the teams on the list of clubs with which Tkachuk is willing to sign a long-term contract, I gathered several of my colleagues at The Athletic and beyond to evaluate five trade offers the Blues could offer the Flames.
Haley Salvian is our Flames beat writer and can give us an idea of what they might want in return, and Sean Gentile and Dom Lushchyshyn, two of our national writers, can provide analysis on those potential trades.
Hart Levine, who runs PuckPedia, will evaluate these proposals from a salary cap perspective. The Blues are currently $125,000 over the 2022-23 cap hit of $82.5 million, so we’d have to factor in Tkachuk’s $9 million-plus salary next season, which would put the Blues in a dollar-in, dollar-out situation .
First, let’s hear from Salvian what it might take.
“In exchange for Tkachuk, the Flames will be looking for a package that includes controllable assets — whether that’s young prospects on their entry-level deals or established players with years under team control. They won’t want to trade Tkachuk for a player who might just leave in a year or two.
“My guess is that the ideal package looks like a combination of an established NHL player, a top prospect and a high draft pick. In terms of actual needs, finding top-tier talent to replace what the Flames lost this summer will be important. It’s also possible — with Tkachuk in control — that the Flames approach this as grabbing the best possible deal rather than filling specific roster holes.”
The Blues have players, prospects and picks that could interest the Flames. The problem is that some of these team-controlled players have no-trade clauses, there may not be many prospects in the trade process that are worth considering in trading Tkachuk, and in the meantime, general manager Doug Armstrong has already moved his second-round pick for 2023 season deal with Detroit for defenseman Nick Leddy.
For reference, here are the 10 Blues players who have some form of trade protection:
Player contract clause
Full no trade
Full no trade
Full no trade
Full no trade
Full no trade
Full no trade
Full no trade
Full no trade
Modified 12-team roster with no trades
Modified 7-team roster with no trades
And here are the top prospects in the Blues’ system:
PlayerPositionDrafted age
Jake Neighbors
RW-LW
1st Round (No. 26) 2020
20
Zachary Bolduc
° С
1st Round (No. 17) 2021
19
Scott Perunovich
e
2nd Round (No. 45) 2018
23
Jimmy Snuggerudd
RW
1st Round (No. 23) 2022
18
And here’s a look at the draft picks the Blues have over the next three years:
Year 1st round 2nd round 3rd round
2023
Blues
Sold to Detroit
Blues
2024
Blues
Blues
Blues
2025
Blues
Blues
Blues
For the purposes of this article, we will not consider no-trade clauses because we cannot predict whether players will waive them or not. We’ll have to work around that missing second-round pick, which won’t be easy because the Blues may be hesitant to give up top players, prospects and first-round picks, and from Calgary’s perspective, a third-rounder may not be enough.
We’ll also focus on players that make the most sense for Armstrong to move. For example, Jordan Kyrou is a talented young player that the team may not be able to afford to re-sign if they get Tkachuk; Vladimir Tarasenko, of course, asked for a deal; and with eight defensemen on one-way contracts, Marco Scandella and Scott Perunovich are other names you’ll see often.
Proposal No. 1
Blues get: Tkachuk
Flames get: Kyrou, Torey Krug, Zachary Bolduc
Gentille: If you had told me earlier this week to come up with a hypothetical Tkachuk and that I had 30 seconds to do it, this is where I would have landed. It almost makes too much sense. Kirou is a wonderful young player who can help Calgary today, tomorrow and down the line with franchise cornerstone potential. Krug works from both ends; the blues need to make room, and he carries an average annual value of $6.5 million, and the flames aren’t interested in a complete meltdown. A circle would help there. Bolduc is a prospect with pedigree and second-line potential. That’s about as fair as it gets. Everyone wins.
Luszczyszyn: If the Blues take Tkachuk, sending Kyrou back to the Flames is a must as a starting point. Kyrou proved himself to be a legitimate front-line forward last year, and he’s the obvious center, but there’s still a lot more to it. Tkachuk is a superstar — one of the few players in the league expected to be worth four wins. Krug is fine, but defense is not a necessity for the Flames and his contract has negative value. Zach Bolduc is a good prospect, but his upside probably isn’t enough to bridge the gap.
PuckPedia: That’s a net savings of $300,000 for the Blues with Tkachuk at $9 million, so it’s broadly neutral in adding another roster player. Kyrou has one more year at $2.8 million and is then a restricted free agent with arbitration rights (requiring a qualifying offer of $3.2 million) and an unrestricted free agent eligible in 2025 (two years after his current contract). Calgary would control his team for three years, along with Krug for five years. St. Louis can handle it this year, and next year will have a $21 million cap hit for 12 players, with Ryan O’Reilly and Tarasenko as key free agents.
Proposal No. 2
Blues get: Tkachuk
Flames receive: Vladimir Tarasenko, Ivan Barbashev, 2023 first round pick
Gentille: Here’s our win now package for the Flames. That gives him some cachet – and would count as a win for Armstrong, I think. A year ago, Tarasenko seemed immobile. Here he is a major component in the Tkachuk trade. Calgary gets a 30-goal replacement, albeit an older one on an expiring contract. As for Barbashev, I’m not sure how many people know how good he was last season. He’s cheap, too, at $2.25 million for one more season. The problem is that Calgary seems to be looking for players with team control on the books, but they’re not getting it. Perhaps the prospect of flipping one (or both) at the deadline would be appealing. This is a good package; I’m just not sure it checks enough boxes for the Flames.
Luszczyszyn: This deal includes a first-round pick, which is nice, but if Tkachuk goes the other way on a team that was close to contending last year, chances are it’s a late first-round pick. That’s not super attractive for a player of Tkachuk’s caliber, and the player’s value coming elsewhere isn’t enough. Tarasenko had a nice renaissance last season, but he’s older, far from Tkachuk’s level, and a year away from unrestricted agency. And I’m not too keen on Barbashev. Combining trade 1 and 2 is somewhat closer, but neither is close enough.
PuckPedia: That’s a net savings of $750,000 for the Blues with Tkachuk at $9 million, making him cap neutral when adding another roster player. As impending UFAs, Calgary could lose both Tarasenko and Barbashev for nothing in one year, leaving only a late first-round pick. That would fit the cap for St. Louis this season, while next year will be a challenge with just $14 million in cap space for 13 players while also having to re-sign Kyrou and O’Reilly. However, getting Tkachuk for such a low trade price makes determining the cap situation for next season a good problem to solve down the road.
Proposal No. 3
Blues get: Tkachuk
Flames get: Kyrou, Jake Neighbors, Scandella, 2023 third-round pick.
Gentille: That seems like a high price for the Blues, doesn’t it? I don’t think we need to talk more about Kiru. He is very good and will soon be very expensive. There seems to be concern about Neighbors’ ceiling, but he also has a lot going for him: size, skill, personality and a skating that The Athletic’s Scott Wheeler says has improved. Scandella is a cap hit, but not big enough to make accommodating Tkachuk a one-stop shop. It’s not far off, but I’m not sure Calgary has enough leverage to make it happen.
Luszczyszyn: Similar item to Trade 1, but swapping Bolduc for Neighbors. I don’t know enough about the prospects to say which is more enticing — they’re probably interchangeable as the team’s top prospect. But neither looks like the type of blue-chip, high-end prospect that moves the needle in a deal like this. One of them should be included with Kyrou, but the Blues should give up more. I don’t think a third rounder is enough, especially if the team sheds Scandella’s salary in the process.
PuckPedia: That’s a net cap of $2.925 million for St.Louis with Tkachuk at $9 million, putting them $3.05 million over the cap, meaning they’ll have to make another cap-clearing move to be in line this season. Their cap situation will be better next year with $17 million available for 12 players. This deal gives Calgary two young players with three and seven years of team control, respectively, while retaining cap flexibility for this season. Scandella has two more years at $3.275 million, which worst case scenario could be…
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