The climate crisis risks pushing many Americans into entirely new climate realities, with a new analysis finding that there are 16 U.S. cities at risk of summer temperatures matching those of the Middle East by the end of the century.
Heat waves have rocked huge swaths of the US this summer, putting nearly a third of the population under some kind of heat advisory and raising temperatures to 115F (46C) in parts of the Great Plains. Hundreds of heat records fell, from Boston, Massachusetts, which reached 100F (37C), to Portland, Oregon, which reached 102F (38.9C) on Tuesday.
But global warming could push many places in the U.S. to extreme heat previously thought unthinkable, changing their climate over the long term to conditions now common in places far south or even far across the ocean.
An analysis of temperature trends by Climate Central found that summer temperatures in 2100 for many cities will be more like conditions further south, an average of 437 miles south, with Washington, D.C.’s summers more like such as in Austin, Texas; Boston looks more and more like Philadelphia; and Billings, Montana, resembling El Paso, Texas.
Map of four American cities with lines connecting them to cities in the Middle East.
Some American cities could be rerouted to the type of climate that cities in other countries are now experiencing, such as Los Angeles becoming more like Tucpan in Mexico. A select few may embark on an epic climate journey by the end of the century, with Austin summers becoming like today’s Dubai, Phoenix resembling Saudi Arabia, and Las Vegas becoming like Kuwait.
“The real risks will be in heat waves, which are now occasional extremes, that will start to last longer,” said Peter Girard, a spokesman for Climate Central, a research organization made up of climate scientists and science communicators. “These kinds of heat waves will become normal and the dangers will be much more present. There will be people who have never needed air conditioning who will run into it. It can quickly go from uncomfortable to dangerous.
The researchers collected temperature data from 1990 to 2020 to establish today’s “normal” temperature and looked at 20 different predictions of temperatures this century under different climate change scenarios. They decided to compare the status quo with a scenario in which planet-heating emissions are not radically reduced and the average global temperature rises by about 3.6C by the end of the century.
List of the 16 US cities and cities in the Middle East whose summer temperatures could be similar in 2100.
The world has already warmed by about 1.2C since pre-industrial times, a situation that has already helped fuel the fierce heatwaves and wildfires recently experienced in the US and Europe. “Extreme heat is a silent killer, but it affects more Americans than any other weather event, especially our nation’s most vulnerable,” said Gina McCarthy, White House National Climate Advisor.
Many analysts expect the temperature rise to be limited to below 3.6C, due to the growing use of renewable energy, but Girard said even lower levels of warming would lead to changes in the climate norms of US cities.
“No matter the scenario, it’s going to be a short-term challenge almost everywhere,” he said. “Cutting emissions will slow the temperature rise and give governments and cities more time to take steps to keep people safe.”
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