Democrats are unwilling to support Biden

Correction: This table has been corrected to reflect that Mandela Barnes and John Fetterman are lieutenant governors, not senators. Data: Axios research; Table: Axios Visuals

A startling number of lawmakers in President Biden’s own party have been reluctant in recent days to say he should run for re-election in 2024, amid fears he would be too old or unpopular to win.

Why it matters: Support for your party’s first president is usually so automatic that no one would bother to ask. But behind the scenes, there is a very real concern that going all-in against Biden could be a mistake.

Reality check: Some Democrats personally don’t want Biden to run again for three reasons:

1. He is deeply unpopular. Many Americans associate it with inflation, high gas prices, entrenched COVID-19 and the inglorious end of the war in Afghanistan.
2. Progressives want a move away from centrism and convention.
3. Many Democratic voters want a generational change. Biden was older when he took office than Ronald Reagan was when he left office. If re-elected, Biden will be 86 years old at the end of his second term.

Breaking news: Just this week, two top New York Democrats cast doubt on the president’s future.

• Reps. Jerry Nadler and Carolyn Maloney were asked during a Democratic primary debate for the 12th Congressional District whether Biden should run again in 2024. Neither responded in the affirmative.
• It followed Sen. Joe Manchin (DW.Va.)’s refusal to commit to Biden ’24 as he tried to hammer out a climate change deal at the finish line, and the emphatic “no” to Biden ’24 by two House Democrats in Minnesota during local interviews.

Yes, but: some strategists see all this as misdirecting the Democrats’ nervous energy.

• “The murmur right now is more about worrying about the 22nd than the 24th, and it’s not particularly helpful for Democrats,” David Axelrod, director of the Institute of Politics at the University of Chicago and a former senior adviser to the president, told Axios Obama. “It’s a Washington parlor game.”
• “Now is not the time to talk. What voters say about an election two years from now and change is as significant as the Farmer’s Almanac.”
• Biden’s age is “an issue that he will have to consider and, if he runs, he will have to confront. But he doesn’t have to do it right now.”

The outcome of the November contests and whether Democrats lose control of one or both houses of Congress will likely shape Biden’s fate.

• There is no party consensus on how to have a conversation about what’s next or who might be the strongest alternative if Biden ultimately decides not to seek a second term.
• Vice President Kamala Harris has the position of Biden’s No. 2, but faces concerns about her popularity within her own party as well as her general election prospects.

By the numbers: Biden’s overall approval rating among Americans has fallen to 39%.

• Only one in four Democratic voters said they would like him to run again in 2024, according to a July poll by The New York Times and Siena College.
• Age and job performance were the main factors. Roughly 94 percent of Democrats under 30 don’t want him nominated next time.

What they’re saying: Democrats campaigning statewide in swing states are quick, when asked about Biden, to pivot to the issues they say voters want their party to address — such as access to abortion, the economy and inflation, crime and gun violence.

• John Fetterman’s Senate campaign told Axios, “Pennsylvanians care if they have a senator who is actually from Pennsylvania, understands their struggles, and will actually fight for abortion rights and fight inflation.”
• Nevada Gov. Steve Sisolak told us he is “more focused on reducing costs for Nevadans and continuing our state’s rapid economic recovery,” but that he will support Biden’s re-election.

• “Biden is the leader of our party, and if he runs again I’ll support him, but if he wants to win Ohio in 2024, I’d urge him to keep his laser focus on cutting costs for working families — which is exactly what I’m participating in this race,” Ohio gubernatorial candidate Nan Whaley told Axios.
• Josh Shapiro, the Democratic candidate for governor of Pennsylvania, is “taking the president at his word” that he is running again. His campaign told Axios that Shapiro is more focused on whether his GOP opponent, Doug Mastriano, if elected, will throw out legal votes in 2024 if he doesn’t like the outcome.

A handful of vocal House Democrats have been clear that they don’t think President Biden should or will run again.

• Congressman Dean Phillips (D-Minn.) told a local radio show last week, “I think the country will be well served by a new generation of persuasive, well-prepared, dynamic Democrats stepping up,” after saying no to the question of whether he will support Biden in 2024.
• Rep. Angie Craig (D-Minn.) told MinnPost, “I think Dean Phillips and I are on board with that, and we’re going to go along with that, and I’m going to do everything in my power as a member of Congress to make sure that we have a new generation of leadership.”
• Rep. Dan Kildee (D-Mich.) told Axios he’s heard rumblings on the Hill that some want younger leadership, though he disagrees. “If the president decides not to run again, it’s obviously game on,” said Congressman Kildee. “But he has to make that decision.”
• Rep. Carolyn Maloney (DN.Y.) has said — on two separate occasions — that she doesn’t believe Biden will run for president again. She has since made it clear that she wants him to run, but continued during an interview with CNN on Thursday: “I just happen to think that [Biden] won’t run.”