A majority of French people believe that the 2022 presidential election campaign was of poor quality and never actually started, which could lead to protests and historically low turnout in Sunday’s first round, sociologists and analysts said.
A survey by Ifop this month found that 80% of French people thought the campaign was “poor”. Voters complain about the lack of new political ideas or vision and few solutions to their problems after two years of the Covid pandemic, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the cost of living crisis.
Emmanuel Macron is campaigning to become the first French president in 20 years to win re-election, promising to continue cutting taxes, raising the retirement age to 65 and bringing France to full employment after decades of mass unemployment. But he entered the race late, instead focusing on diplomacy with Vladimir Putin, and saw his lead in the poll decline slightly in recent days as far-right Marine Le Pen closed the gap in second place.
Le Pen is focusing on the cost of living crisis, while her anti-immigration program will ban Muslim headscarves in all public places. Stubborn Jean-Luc Melenchon is also rising in the election, promising to freeze prices and overhaul the presidential system.
Despite major concerns from French voters – the cost of living crisis, the war in Ukraine and the environment – there has been less interest in the campaign than in the last presidential election five years ago. There were fewer rallies, and voters complained that there was no live televised debate between all the candidates.
As the first round of the campaign entered its final week, 54% of people said they thought it had not started yet. An unprecedented number of French voters say they are not sure who to vote for, and abstentions could reach a record high of up to 30% on Sunday.
Macron tried to mobilize his constituents by likening the political mood to that in the United Kingdom before the 2016 Brexit vote.
“There is no security,” he warned at his only rally in Nanterre near Paris, dismissing his lead in opinion polls. “Don’t trust polls or commentators who sound outright and tell you that … the elections have already been made, that everything will be fine. From Brexit to so many elections, what seems unlikely can happen! ”
Macron later told a radio interview that he felt society was “tired of two years of Covid” and “stunned” by the war in Ukraine. He said “real issues” had indeed been discussed in the campaign, saying “war is a real topic!” But he acknowledged that there was a “collective question as to whether the vote still made sense.” He said the vote was crucial.
Sociologists say the fact that these elections have been seen as a preconceived conclusion for months – that Macron will easily win – could affect turnout and choice and create a feeling among voters who want to prove their predictions wrong. . A total of 66% of French people now believe Macron will win – a figure that has fallen in recent weeks as Le Pen’s support has risen.
Feelings of fatigue and preconceived notions were compared to the 2002 election quake 20 years ago, when Le Pen’s father, far-right Jean-Marie Le Pen, knocked out the left to reach the final against Jacques Chirac.
“As today, in 2002 there was a constant feeling of a campaign not working, which in turn created a temptation to protest,” said Francois Miche-Marty, head of sociology research at Viavoice. “Our poll shows that 75% of French people believe that there are no new ideas in this campaign. At the same time, 76% of people are worried about the future of their children. There is a feeling that the solutions offered in this campaign are not enough. “
French media and analysts describe the campaign as lulling voters to a country already exhausted by crises. Communist candidate Fabien Russell described the campaign as “morphine” this week. Jean Lassalle, an MP from the south-west of rural areas, told a TV interviewer in February: “This campaign is nonsense” and the video has been widely circulated since then.
The early campaign began last fall amid a wave of Covid Omicron infections. Then the surprising rise of far-right television expert Eric Zemmour initially put the issue of national identity at the top of the agenda. But the war in Ukraine ultimately dominated the headlines. Macron postponed his own start of the election campaign, initially taking advantage of a kind of “flag rally” in the polls. Macron is currently down, although he holds the lead, while Le Pen and Melenchon are rising and Zemmour is retiring.
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