Pakistani Prime Minister Imran Khan was ousted after a no-confidence vote in parliament in the early hours of Sunday after three years and seven months in power.
A new government will be formed, most likely under the leadership of opposition leader Shahbaz Sharif, after parliament meets again Monday to vote for a new prime minister.
The country of more than 220 million people is located between Afghanistan in the west, China in the northeast and India in the east, making it of vital strategic importance.
After coming to power in 2018, Khan’s rhetoric became more anti-American and he expressed a desire to get closer to China, and recently Russia – Khan held talks with President Vladimir Putin on February 24, the day of the invasion of Ukraine began.
Pakistan’s powerful army has traditionally controlled foreign and defense policy, but Khan’s harsh public rhetoric has affected a number of key issues.
Afghanistan
Links between Pakistan’s military intelligence and the Islamist Taliban have loosened in recent years.
Now that the Taliban have returned to power – amid an economic and humanitarian crisis due to lack of money and international isolation – Qatar is perhaps the country’s most important foreign partner, a position Pakistan once held.
Tensions have risen between the Taliban and the Pakistani military, which lost several troops in attacks near their border. Pakistan wants the Taliban to do more to fight extremist groups and fears they will spread violence in Pakistan. This has already begun to happen.
Khan was less critical of the Taliban on human rights than most foreign leaders.
China
Khan consistently emphasized China’s positive role in Pakistan and the world at large.
The $ 60 billion (£ 46 billion) China-Pakistan economic corridor, which connects neighbors, was conceptualized and launched by two established political parties in Pakistan, and both are likely to share power in the new government.
Potential successor Sharif, the younger brother of three-time former Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif, has struck deals with China directly as chief minister of the eastern Punjab province and his reputation for launching major infrastructure projects while avoiding political reputation may actually be music for the ears of Beijing.
India
Neighbors with nuclear weapons have fought three wars since independence in 1947, two for the disputed Muslim-majority territory in Kashmir.
Tensions over the de facto border in Kashmir are at their lowest level since 2021, thanks to a ceasefire. But there have been no formal diplomatic talks for years due to deep mistrust over a number of issues, including Khan’s extreme criticism of Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi for his response to attacks on India’s minority Muslims.
Karan Tapar, an Indian political commentator who closely monitors India-Pakistan relations, said the Pakistani military could put pressure on the new government in Islamabad to build on a successful ceasefire in Kashmir.
The head of Pakistan’s powerful army, General Kamar Javed Bajua, said recently that his country is ready to move forward on Kashmir if India agrees.
The Sharif dynasty has been at the forefront of several pigeon overtures to India over the years.
US
US-based experts from South Asia have said that the political crisis in Pakistan is unlikely to be a priority for President Joe Biden, who is fighting the war in Ukraine, unless it leads to mass unrest or escalating tensions with India.
“We have so many other fish to fry,” said Robin Raffel, a former assistant secretary of state for South Asia who is a senior fellow at the think tank at the Center for Strategic and International Studies.
As the Pakistani military maintains behind-the-scenes control over foreign and security policy, a change of government is not a major concern, according to some analysts.
“Because the military is the one who decides the policies that the United States is really interested in, that is. Afghanistan, India and nuclear weapons, Pakistan’s domestic political developments are largely irrelevant to the United States, “said Curtis, then-US President Donald Senior Director of Trump’s National Security Council for South Asia.
She added that Khan’s visit to Moscow was a “disaster” in US relations and that the new government in Islamabad could at least help improve ties.
Khan blamed the United States for the current political crisis, saying Washington wanted it removed because of a recent trip to Moscow. Washington denies any role.
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