- Andrei Ilarionov, Putin’s former chief economic adviser, was interviewed by the BBC.
- He said Putin was likely to end the war in Ukraine if the West stopped buying Russian oil and gas.
- Many Western countries remain heavily dependent on Russian energy exports.
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Vladimir Putin’s former chief economic adviser has suggested that Russia will suspend military operations in Ukraine “within a month or two” if Western countries stop buying Russian oil and gas.
In an interview with the BBC’s Talking Business program released on Sunday, Andrei Ilarionov, who advised Putin between 2000 and 2005, said the president was probably reassured by the continuing flow of energy exports, which allowed him to to continue the war.
Ilarionov said that if Western countries impose a “real embargo on oil and gas exports from Russia”, then “within a month or two, Russian military operations in Ukraine will probably be stopped.” He added: “This is one of the very effective tools that Western countries still have.”
Russia’s economy is expected to shrink by as much as 15% this year after Western countries imposed broad sanctions and companies withdrew from the country following its invasion of Ukraine.
Ilarionov predicts that Russia will be spared complete economic devastation thanks to its strength in exports – especially energy exports.
Exports account for more than a quarter of Russia’s economy, and the country is a heavy exporter of oil, gas, precious metals and grain. The International Energy Agency estimates that Russia accounts for 45% of gas imports to the European Union, and the bloc says it receives most of its oil from Russia.
Ilarionov told the BBC: “Every two and a half billion euros go into Putin’s pockets. It is extremely useful for Putin to continue to maintain his system in order to continue financing the war. “
Ilarionov added: “Once this currency flow is cut off, Putin will have to rethink his policy because there will not be many resources to finance further aggression.”
EU countries have pledged to give up Russian energy, and the United States has pledged to export more liquefied natural gas to members of the bloc. However, high oil and gas prices mean that Russia’s energy export earnings could rise by more than a third in 2022 compared to 2021, according to Bloomberg Economics.
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