Macron, the current president of France, seems ready to take 28.6% of the vote in Sunday’s first round, putting him in first place, according to an analysis by the Ifop-Fiducial poll for French broadcasters TF1 and LCI . Le Pen, the long-time flag bearer of the French far right, is on track to be second with 23.6%.
12 candidates applied for the highest position. As neither of them received more than 50% of the ballots in the first round, the first two candidates will face each other in a runoff on April 24.
The race was marked by voter apathy, with voter turnout estimated at 73.3%, according to Ifop-Fiducial, the lowest in the first round in 20 years. Although Macron seems on track to win the first round, he is a polarizing figure whose approval rating has fallen during his first term.
Macron called on voters to go to the second round in a speech after the polls closed.
“Nothing has been settled and the debate we will have in the next 15 days is crucial for our country and our Europe,” he said. “I do not want France, which, once it leaves Europe, will have international populists and xenophobes as its only allies. This is not us. I want France, faithful to humanism, to the spirit of enlightenment, “he said.
Macron is aiming to become the first French president to win re-election since Jacques Chirac in 2002. Although his polls give him a steady advantage over the field, the race has tightened significantly in the last month.
A poll by Ifop-Fiducial, published on Sunday, showed that Macron will win in the second round against Le Pen by only 51% to 49%.
Le Pen’s support has grown steadily in recent weeks. Although best known for her far-right policies such as drastically restricting immigration and banning Muslim headscarves in public places, this time she ran a more massive campaign, softening her tongue and focusing more on pocket book problems such as rising living costs. , a leading concern for the French electorate.
In a speech Sunday, Le Pen promised to be president of “all the French” if she wins the second round, and called on those who did not vote for Macron to support her in the second round.
In third place is the left brandman Jean-Luc Melenchon with 20.1%, according to the analysis of early results. Melenchon enjoyed a late jump in support and was considered a possible dark horse candidate to challenge Macron.
Who elected these voters in the second round could be decided by the presidency, experts say. Melenchon told his supporters that “we should not give a single vote to Mrs Le Pen”, but did not explicitly support Macron.
According to the analysis, no other candidate received more than 10% of the vote. The far-right political commentator, who became presidential candidate Eric Zemor, who was among the top three candidates until March, according to an Ifop poll, came in fourth with 7%.
The candidates, who are on the verge of losing, quickly began to throw their support behind the first two. While Semmore called on his supporters to vote for Le Pen, the others called on their supporters to avoid her.
Candidates from the traditional center-left and center-right parties, the Socialists and the Republicans, have already backed Macron.
Socialist candidate Anne Hidalgo said Le Pen’s victory would instill in France “hatred of everyone against everyone”, while Republican Valerie Pecres said she was genuinely worried about the country because the far right had never been so close. victory. “
“Marin Le Pen’s project will open France to discord, impotence and collapse,” Pecres said.
The rematch
Macron’s political rise broke the playing field as his centrist political party withdrew its supporters from traditional centrist parties, the Socialists and the Republicans. Both of her candidates voted below 5% on Sunday.
Pre-race studies have shown that Macron’s second round against Le Pen is the most likely outcome. Macron successfully defeated Le Pen five years ago, but experts said the second race between the two will be much more intense than the 2017 race.
Macron is no longer a political leader and must work with mixed results. Although his ambitious plan to strengthen the European Union’s autonomy and geopolitical weight has earned him respect abroad and at home, he remains a divisive figure when it comes to domestic policies. His attitude toward the yellow vest movement, one of France’s longest-running protests in decades, has been widely criticized, and his recordings of the Covid-19 pandemic are unconvincing.
Macron’s signature policy during the crisis – requiring people to provide proof of vaccination in order to lead a normal life – helped increase the vaccination rate, but sparked a minority vote against his presidency.
Macron has done very few campaigns so far. Experts believe his strategy was to avoid political blurring for as long as possible in order to flaunt his image as the most presidential of all candidates. Surveys have shown that he consistently leads all candidates and it was thought that he will participate in the second round.
A poll by Ifop-Fiducial, published on Sunday, showed that Macron will win in the second round against Le Pen by only 51% to 49%.
“Widespread dissatisfaction with Macron (especially among young people) means that the outcome is uncertain and unpredictable. “Le Pen will continue to use this and therefore a great deal of political turmoil remains,” said CNN’s European Affairs commentator Dominique Thomas of the potential second round.
“As much as they don’t like Le Pen, there is a big difference between her and Macron and how she would violate European and global politics.
Le Pen tried to present himself as a very different candidate from the one who lost deftly to Macron in 2017, when he tried to position himself in front of the forgotten French working class in response to his country’s response to then US President Donald Trump. While her economic nationalist stance, views on immigration, Euroscepticism, and attitudes toward Islam in France remained unchanged, Le Pen sought to expand his appeal.
The race was originally intended to be a referendum on far-right dominance in French politics, but the war in Ukraine – another key issue for voters – turned the tide.
Macron retained first place in most polls before this year’s election. An Ifop poll found support for it peaked in early March as potential voters gathered around the flag and rewarded the president for his attempts to mediate the conflict in Ukraine before Russia’s invasion, even if unsuccessful.
Many experts also expected the war to harm Le Pen, a staunch admirer of Vladimir Putin, the Russian leader who has become a pariah in the West over the Kremlin’s decision to invade Ukraine in late February. Le Pen visited the Russian president during his campaign in 2017, but this time she was forced to throw out a leaflet with a photo of her and Putin from this trip after Russia’s unprovoked attack on its neighbor.
Thomas, a CNN commentator on European affairs, explained that the upcoming debate would be crucial if Macron wanted to convince voters that Le Pen’s previous support for Putin should disqualify her.
“He will be vulnerable to a number of domestic issues, but it will have difficulty convincing the electorate of its foreign policy powers, especially given its long-standing ties with Russia,” he said.
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