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Egg prices have risen in recent weeks, in part due to a huge wave of bird flu that has infected nearly 27 million chickens and turkeys in the United States, forcing many farmers to “depopulate” or destroy their animals to prevent further spread.
The virus has affected many different species of birds, including penguins and bald eagles. But its prevalence among poultry is huge, especially among chickens raised for their eggs.
On Friday, the US Department of Agriculture announced another outbreak, that of two herds in Idaho, making it the 27th state where the virus has been detected since February.
According to the USDA, the price of a dozen eggs in November was around $ 1. Currently, this price is $ 2.95 and is rising.
The disease affects commercial birds, chickens in the backyard of amateurs and wild birds and is spread through secretions and leads to paralysis, swelling and reduced egg production. No cases of these avian influenza viruses have been reported in the United States.
So far, about 1.3 percent of all chickens in the United States have been affected by the outbreak and about 6 percent of the turkey flock in the United States, said Grady Ferguson, senior research analyst for Gro Intelligence, an agricultural data platform.
Ferguson traced the last major outbreak of bird flu in 2015, saying the outbreak had the potential to be more significant and destructive to poultry and egg markets. During the last epidemic, at this point in the outbreak, 66 days after the first detection, the percentage of total chickens affected was 0.02 percent, eventually rising to about 2.5 percent of infected chickens and 50 million birds killed.
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“We are above the speed of proliferation we saw in 2015,” Ferguson said. “The last time 81 percent of the cases were in the fourth and fifth months, as things exploded. What the prices of chicken eggs did last time has affected the market for years. We have been in the epidemic for two months now and the safety protocols are not working. I don’t want to be Chicken Little, but I think it will be worse than last time.
He said that in addition to higher prices for a box of a dozen eggs, consumers “will see higher prices for all baked goods and a wide variety of processed foods from cupcakes to salad dressings.” Restaurants will find it harder to justify why they have to give you a three-egg omelette for a dollar. And with regard to chicken, this time the situation is also worse than last time.
Most of the birds that had to be destroyed last time were laying hens and hens (these are sexually immature birds that will be laying hens) and very few broilers (birds that are consumed by consumers) were affected, Ferguson said. So far in this epidemic, 9 percent of the affected animals are broiler chickens, he said, which will lead to already high chicken prices becoming even higher.
Tom Super, senior vice president of communications for the National Chicken Council, said chicken producers “double and triple” biosecurity on chicken farms by adding protocols such as workers’ showers when entering and leaving the facility and antiseptic tire baths. for trucks so that the infection does not move from one facility to another.
Super said that bird flu will increase the price of chicken, but this is just one of several price pressures at the moment. He lists higher costs for animal feed, higher fuel costs for transporting animals and even the Biden administration’s decision to allow higher levels of ethanol in gasoline, which further increases the price of corn and soy needed for animal feed.
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Emily Metz, president of the American Egg Council, said about 5 percent of the laying hen flocks have been affected so far, but she is more optimistic about the trajectory of the outbreak.
“The bottom line is that we started a little earlier than in 2015 [with biosecurity protocols]”she said.” We learned some difficult lessons in 2015 that our biosecurity is not where it should be. We have invested in huge changes. “
She described high-tech new protocols such as laser light systems to repel migratory birds to prevent them from landing on farmland or buildings. And while she admits that prices are rising, she cites farmers’ costs as a bigger factor than the ghost of bird flu.
“This is worrying and I share the concern about accessibility. But eggs are still one of the most affordable proteins, without any, “she said.
Andrew Van Damme contributed to this report.
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