Voters in Scotland, Wales and parts of England will vote in the local elections on 5 May. All London City Councils will be seized and seven districts of England will elect mayors.
Since the last time most of these places were contested in 2018, the political landscape has changed significantly. In Britain, both the Labor and Conservative parties changed leaders in the United Kingdom, while the Covid-19 pandemic, the war in Ukraine and the cost of living crisis hit.
Although local issues will certainly weigh, the election in England will be seen as a test of Boris Johnson’s leadership following the Partygate scandal and the government’s handling of the cost of living crisis. Recent studies show that Labor has a slight advantage over the Conservatives.
In Scotland, Labor status is also a dominant theme. There, Labor hopes to replace the Tories as the country’s second-largest party after the SNP; Another poll this year shows that it is about to do so, with Partygate seriously undermining Tory support for unions.
However, national polls have limited benefits in local elections, which take place only in some parts of the country.
In England, most of the seats will be contested in London – 1,817 seats in 32 districts – where Labor controls the vast majority of councils. Outside the capital, there is a wide variety of election councils: 33 metropolitan city councils, covering 904 seats; 21 unified authorities with 627 seats; 60 district councils (1011 seats). Six mayors will also be elected in the London boroughs and one in the Joint Body of South Yorkshire.
In Scotland, there are 1,219 seats on 32 unitary councils, while in Wales there are 1,234 seats on 22 councils.
The fact that many English suburbs, like any London council, are in the run-up to the election means Conservatives can fight in traditional Labor strongholds. In all, Labor will defend 69 councils in England, Wales and Scotland, compared to the Conservatives’ 47.
Diagram of protected party councils
Elections for the Northern Ireland Assembly will also be held on 5 May. The polls put Sinn Fein, a party fighting for a united Ireland, on the path to historic victory, becoming the largest party in Stormont.
Key battlefields
As the next general election approaches, Labor will hope that these elections show signs of recovery.
To do so, Labor will have to take positions in the constituencies it lost in 2019 – several of which overlap with councils that have seats in the 2022 local elections.
There are a total of 11 councils in England and Wales that the Guardian considers essential for Labor to see at least some gains if they want to have serious hopes of returning to power. All of them led to deviations of the Conservatives in the general elections in 2019 and allow Labor to at least fight full control of the Tories.
This is especially true in the four Welsh councils, where Labor will hope to gain momentum following the strong results of last year’s parliamentary elections in Wales.
If Labor fails in these places, especially after the recent Partygate events, in which Johnson was fined for violating his own coronavirus regulations, serious questions will be asked about Keira Starmer’s ability to win the next general election.
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