Under normal circumstances, this would mean that the time for the Prime Minister and his term of office has expired. But for now, Johnson has refused to resign, and since no general election is scheduled for 2024, his fate will ultimately be determined by his own conservative members of parliament, the only people who can remove him. premature.
For now, they seem pleased that he remains on Downing Street, despite a poll following a poll showing that the public believes he should resign. Johnson is embroiled in the worst of his prime minister’s crisis after police fined him for violating Covid-19 laws by attending a 2020 birthday rally in his honor, in his office, in full swing of blocking.
The Conservative Party’s poll also doesn’t look very good, although party sources say Johnson as a whole is still an electoral asset rather than a problem. They are aware that this could change if Johnson is fined again or more details emerge from the so-called Partygate scandal.
This means in the medium term that Johnson simply has to go and avoid the various traps directly in front of him – which his allies say he has managed to do so far and can continue to do so.
The first such stone will come on Thursday, when lawmakers will be able to vote on a proposal submitted by opposition parties that will take the prime minister to a parliamentary committee to investigate his behavior.
Keir Starmer, leader of the main opposition Labor Party, said: “We call on Conservative MPs to do the right thing. To respect the victims their constituents made during the pandemic. “
Johnson, who has a sizeable parliamentary majority, is expected to survive the vote, but Labor sources have quietly said the proposal would be politically toxic to Johnson anyway. If Conservative MPs vote against the investigation, Labor will be able to take their seats in the next election and say they voted to protect the prime minister from scrutiny.
And there will be another test just weeks later: local elections are being held across the country on May 5th. Although they will not remove Johnson from office, the election will be an opportunity for voters to send a message of anger directly to Downing Street.
While the Conservatives suffered huge setbacks in a number of pre-election polls, observers believe a spectacular defeat will be needed for Johnson’s lawmakers to commit a political assassination against Johnson. But that’s not out of the question – and those who have seriously considered removing the prime minister see summer as the best time to get rid of him, as it will give the new leader plenty of time to get ready before the next general elections.
After these elections, the pitfalls are a little harder to predict. At any time, Johnson could be fined again for other rallies held on Downing Street that violate the laws of his own government. And the final report by a senior government official on the Partygate scandal could be so humiliating that the number of conservative polls has dropped even more.
For now, however, Johnson remains at work, unwilling to resign, and no one is strong enough to push him out. It’s frustrating for those who want him gone, but politics just makes it virtually impossible to get rid of Johnson in the near future. Whether this is good for Johnson and his party is a very different question – and there are Labor who believe that Johnson is fighting in the next general election would be preferable to a new, more credible alternative.
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