Boris Johnson will be on the lookout for Ukraine when he arrives in India for a two-day visit on Thursday, as the British prime minister seeks to conclude a trade agreement with his counterpart Narendra Modi by the end of the year.
Modi refused to condemn the Russian invasion of Ukraine, unlike Johnson, who was one of Moscow’s brightest Western leaders.
Downing Street said Johnson instead wanted to focus on building bilateral trade and defense ties and encourage co-operation on green projects, adding that Britain did not want to “point the finger”.
Johnson, who has good personal relations with Modi, is aware of the diplomatic dangers of the United Kingdom, a former colonial power, by telling India how to maintain its foreign relations. Speaking on the way to India, the prime minister said the UK should recognize “India-Russia history”.
Johnson will discuss closer defense relations between Britain and India, hoping to reduce New Delhi’s dependence on Russian military equipment, but is otherwise expected to avoid a confrontation with Modi on the issue.
Both sides want a trade agreement before the end of 2022 – a timetable that fits into the UK and Indian election cycles, with polls to be conducted in both in 2024 – although negotiations are expected to be difficult.
British officials expect India to ask for more visas for Indians to work in the UK, while Johnson is aware that more immigration is highly controversial and will face opposition from the Home Office.
When Theresa May visited India in 2016 as Prime Minister, she immediately quarreled with the Modi government over her strong stance on immigration. “It was a complete disaster,” said a British official.
Negotiations may be easier this time, given that Britain’s point-based post-Brexit immigration system has opened the door to many more Indians: last year they received 65,000 skilled work visas in the UK – more than 40 the percentage of the total issued. In contrast, US citizens received 6,923 such visas.
Speaking on the way to India, Johnson opened the door to a more generous immigration policy, saying: “We have a huge shortage of workers in the UK in areas such as IT and programmers. He added that hundreds of thousands more workers were needed, but added: “It needs to be controlled.”
But a senior Indian official dismissed the idea that New Delhi’s main demand was more visas. The official argues that it is more important to remove barriers that limit Indian services and access to production in the UK. India, for example, has one of the largest pharmaceutical sectors in the world, but its medicines often face severe restrictions abroad.
Visas “are not our priority,” the official said. “Our priority is to have production in India, to have services provided by India, not just for people to travel and get visas, get permanent residence and settle there.”
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The United Kingdom hopes that the free trade agreement will increase exports of whiskey, cars and auto parts. Access to the services market in India will also be a contentious issue.
But a senior Indian official warned that the United Kingdom should not expect such a removal of trade barriers, given India’s existing high tariffs and lower-income populations.
Detailed trade talks have not yet begun and it is unlikely that any agreement will have a major impact on Britain’s economic growth. The UK government’s modeling suggests that a free trade agreement with India could increase the UK’s gross domestic product by between £ 3.3 billion and £ 6.2 billion in 2035, or 0.12 to 0.22 percent. The United Kingdom is currently doing twice as much business with Belgium.
Upon his arrival in Gujarat, Johnson will announce £ 1 billion in new trade and investment deals between the UK and India, which he says will create 11,000 jobs in the UK. Investments cover various sectors, including software engineering and healthcare. He will also welcome a contract with state-controlled New Space India to launch satellites for OneWeb, a communications company backed by the UK government.
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