After Russian President Vladimir Putin declared victory in the eastern Ukrainian city of Mariupol, experts say the battle is a critical turning point in Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
“For Russia, this will be the first major city they capture after more than 50 days of heavy fighting,” the retired major general said. David Fraser, a former NATO force commander in southern Afghanistan, told CTV Your Morning on Thursday.
Russia hopes to build a land bridge between itself and Crimea, the southeastern Ukrainian peninsula that was annexed by Russia in 2014. Fraser calls Mariupol “an important place for Russians because it is the last piece of the puzzle they need for the land bridge.” between Crimea and Russia “.
The last Ukrainian forces in the city are being held inside the steel plant. Putin told his forces to close the plant, “so that not even a fly can pass through it.”
“Now this is a siege war in old age, where he will keep them and try to starve them and wait for them to come out with their hands up,” Fraser said. “It will be an absolute misery for the other fighters. Very uncertain what will happen next.”
Experts say Russia’s military success in Mariupol is a significant asset to Putin’s propaganda efforts at home. In an intelligence update, the UK Ministry of Defense said Russia “probably wants to demonstrate significant success” before May 9, recognized as “Victory Day” in Russia in honor of the capitulation of Nazi Germany in 1945.
“Putin is trying to show some victories and progress in what was otherwise a catastrophe as a military effort,” Fraser said. “This gives him some relief so that he can now focus on the Donbass region and show the rest of Russia that he will win under his belt.”
Aurel Brown, a professor of political science and international relations at the University of Toronto, says the brutality of Russian aggression has increased since Putin appointed the notorious General Alexander Dvornikov to lead the invasion of Ukraine.
“Gen. Dvornikov has a reputation for committing atrocities in Syria. He was known as the butcher of Syria, but he is much more methodical,” Brown told CTV News Channel on Thursday.
“He is ready to starve people. The Russians have not only participated in aggression, but have committed constant atrocities. And we see this in areas that have been liberated by Ukrainian forces,” he added.
Now the focus is on Donbass, Ukraine’s eastern region, which has already been partially occupied by pro-Russian separatist forces since 2015. Russian officials have been saying for weeks that capturing all of Donbass is the main goal of the war.
“The Russians, under joint command now, are attacking 480 kilometers (in Donbass). We will find out where the weaknesses in the Ukrainian defense are,” Fraser said.
The escalating conflict in Donbass is forcing the United States, Canada and other allies to send even more military aid. US President Joe Biden announced on Thursday that his administration would send a $ 800 million military package, including heavy artillery, 144,000 rounds of ammunition and drones.
Prime Minister Justin Trudeau also mentioned at a news conference Wednesday that Canada would send heavy artillery to Ukraine at the request of Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky, but was silent on any details about costs or specific equipment.
If Putin succeeds in capturing Donbass, Brown believes he can send Russian forces back to northern Ukraine to try to regain his position there. But if the Ukrainians in the region succeed in defeating the Russians, Bruans says the Russian leader “may face problems he has never faced in his 22-year rule”.
“The military and security services may begin to question his policies. At this point, they will realize that he led them to disaster,” he said. “It will be a huge blow to his prestige and credibility.
With files from the Associated Press and Rachel Ayelo from CTVNews.ca.
Connect
Do you have questions about the attack on Ukraine? Send dotcom@bellmedia.ca an email.
- Please provide your name, location and contact information if you would like to speak to a CTV News reporter.
- Your comments can be used in the history of CTVNews.ca.
Add Comment