A senior Russian military commander said the goal of Russia’s new offensive was to seize control of southern Ukraine and build a land bridge to Crimea, indicating that Russia was planning a permanent occupation of Ukrainian territory taken during the war.
Rustam Minekayev, acting commander of the Central Military District, also told members of a defense industry forum on Friday that control of southern Ukraine would give Russia access to Transnistria, a pro-Russian breakaway region of Moldova that shows Russia can attacks the port city of Odessa.
The remarks directly contradict Vladimir Putin’s earlier claims that Russia did not plan to occupy Ukrainian cities permanently and suggest that the Kremlin is changing direction after its failed offensive against Kyiv, which appears to be seeking regime change.
The statement was the first by a high-ranking Russian army official to occupy territory while maneuvering for an expected “battle for Donbass” in eastern Ukraine.
“Since the beginning of the second phase of the special operation … one of the tasks of the Russian army has been to establish full control over Donbass and southern Ukraine. This will provide a land corridor to Crimea, as well as affect vital sites of the Ukrainian economy, Black Sea ports through which agricultural and metallurgical products are delivered. [other] countries, “Minekayev said on Friday at the annual meeting of the Union of Defense Enterprises of the Sverdlovsk Region of Russia.
Crimea was annexed by Russia in 2014, which was not recognized by the international community.
Russia’s campaign in southern Ukraine has been more successful than its attempts to take Kyiv from the north, despite fierce resistance from Ukrainian troops. Russia has occupied the city of Kherson and taken almost complete control of Mariupol as it plans a pliers attack on Ukrainian forces in the eastern Donbass region.
Zelensky: Russia plans to hold a fictitious vote for independence in southern Ukraine – video
Vladimir Zelensky accused Russia of planning to “falsify” the independence referendum in the partially occupied southern regions of Kherson and Zaporozhye, telling Ukrainians there not to provide personal information to the occupying forces.
Russia planned to “falsify the so-called referendum on your land” if an order came from Moscow to organize such a show. And this is the reality. Be careful.”
The Kremlin declined to answer questions about Minekayev’s comments on Friday, saying Russia’s defense ministry was responsible for the “special operation”, which means Russia’s war in Ukraine.
It is unclear whether Minekayev revealed details of Russia’s official plans for its offensive or expressed personal views on the benefits of Russia’s military offensive.
Minekayev, acting commander of one of Russia’s four military districts, also said that “control of southern Ukraine will provide another access point to Transnistria, where there is also evidence of oppression of the Russian-speaking population.”
“Obviously we are at war with the whole world now,” Minekayev said.
Map of the land bridge of Ukraine
If true, it could mean that Russia will seek to take Odessa, one of Ukraine’s largest cities, and seek to strengthen its position in Transnistria, a Russian-controlled territory of Russian-speaking Moldova. troops after the fall of the Soviet Union.
With Russian support, Transnistria waged war against Moldova in the 1990s, leaving the territory with de facto independence and a garrison of 1,500 Russian troops. The region is recognized as part of Moldova. The unrecognized state is heavily influenced internationally by nostalgia for the Soviet Union and its affinity for Russia, which is encouraged by state propaganda.
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It is unlikely that Russian forces, which suffered significant losses in the early stages of the war, will now be able to launch an offensive against Odessa, much less the border with Moldova. Russian warships have moved off the coast of Ukraine after the Russian flagship Moscow cruiser sank in the Black Sea last week. Ukraine says it attacked the cruiser with anti-ship missiles.
“My interpretation of Minekayev’s recent statement is that Russia intends to keep what it has taken to the south (largely assumed at the moment) and try to put pressure on Ukraine over time on the economic front.” including through a blockade, “wrote Michael Coffman, director of the research program at the CNA’s Russian Studies Program.
“I am skeptical of any further major offensives beyond the Donbass, given the losses and current constraints on the availability of forces,” he wrote.
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