Emmanuel Macron, who is running for a new term as president of France, was paired with Jean-Denis Nzaramba, a local amateur boxer, during the suspension of the campaign on Thursday in Saint-Denis, outside Paris. Credit … Photo of the pool by Francois Mori
PARIS – During a visit last week to Saint-Denis, north of Paris, where the poverty rate is about twice the national average, President Emmanuel Macron put on boxing gloves for a moment to argue with a local. “Come on, hit me,” said the young man, “show me what you got!”
It was a late stop to a long campaign in which Mr Macron, distracted by his fruitless Russian diplomacy, largely ignored parts of France affected by high immigration, unemployment and hardship – and rarely showed real concern about growing economic hardship. inflation and gas prices brought.
Marine Le Pen, the far-right candidate who has brought his anti-immigrant movement closer to power than ever before in the history of the Fifth Republic, has focused on these issues with significant impact. On Sunday, the battle to take off gloves between Mrs Le Pen and Mr Macron will unfold as the French elect their president for a five-year term.
Whatever the outcome, the election will have profound consequences far beyond France at a time when the United States and its European allies are locked in precarious confrontation with Russia over its war in Ukraine.
Mr Macron tried to engage President Vladimir Putin in Russia, but was a reliable part of a united front against the Kremlin. Victory for Mrs Le Pen, who has long sympathized with Moscow and owes millions to a Russian bank, will no doubt be a victory for Mr Putin, giving him his most important ally in his quest to weaken the European Union and divide NATO.
A poll by Ipsos and Sofra Steria for the daily Le Monde, published just before the official end of the campaign on Friday, showed that Macron led with 56.5 percent of the vote, compared to 43.5 percent for Ms. Le Pen. He seems to have increased his lead, probably decisively, in the two weeks since the first round of voting on April 10th.
Polling station Sunday in Paris during the second round of the French presidential election. Credit … Dmitry Kostyukov for The New York Times
Yet the likelihood of a high abstention rate and the reluctance of many of the 7.7 million people who voted for Jean-Luc Melenchon, the narrowly eliminated staunch left-wing candidate, to transfer their vote to Mr Macron has left lasting uncertainty over result.
Mr Melenchon said “no vote” for Mrs Le Pen; however, he did not support Mr Macron, who was moving right during his presidency and whose alienated assurance is often seen as arrogance.
The first round of voting showed how France gutted the center-left and center-right parties, which were the main drivers of its post-war policy. It split into three blocks: the solid left, the amorphous center gathered around Mr. Macron, and the far right of Marine Le Pen.
The makeover, which included a quieter tone and lots of smiles, helped soften Ms Le Pen’s image, but if the packaging is different, the content is not.
She wants to ban headscarves, which are widely worn by Muslim women; revision of the Constitution through a referendum to establish the idea of a national preference for access to employment and social housing; limiting child allowances for French citizens; and deportation of undocumented migrants. It regularly links Islam to violence in a country with the largest Muslim population in Western Europe.
It is unlikely to win, but it is already in the zone of potential surprise, Ms. Le Pen is no longer extraordinary. It is the new French norm. If Macron wins, according to opinion polls, he will face a troubled, divided country where hatred of him is not uncommon. The old notion that France is unmanageable may soon be tested again.
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