France began voting in a presidential run-off on Sunday with implications for Europe’s future, with incumbent centrist Emmanuel Macron a favorite but battling a tough challenge from far-right rival Marine Le Pen.
The centrist Macron is asking voters to trust him for a second five-year term, despite a presidency concerned about protests, the pandemic and the war in Ukraine. Macron’s victory in this vote will make him the first French president in 20 years to win a second term.
The outcome of the vote in France, a nuclear-armed nation with one of the world’s largest economies, could also affect the conflict in Ukraine, as France has played a key role in diplomatic efforts and support for sanctions against Russia.
Le Pen’s support in the French electorate has risen to its highest level so far during the campaign, and much will depend on how many people vote on Sunday. Turnout was 26 percent at noon, slightly higher than at the same time as the first round of voting on April 10th.
Many who are expected to choose Macron are doing so to avoid Le Pen and ideas that are seen as too extreme and anti-democratic, such as her plan to publicly ban the Muslim headscarf or her ties to Russia.
Left voters – wild card
Both candidates are trying to win 7.7 million votes from left-wing candidate Jean-Luc Melanchon, who was defeated in the first ballot.
For many who voted for left-wing candidates in the first round, this runoff is an awkward choice between a Le Pen nationalist and a president some believe has deviated from the right during his first term. The outcome may depend on how left-wing voters decide whether to support Macron or abstain and leave him to fend for himself against Le Pen.
All opinion polls in recent days are approaching victory for the 44-year-old pro-European centrist – but the difference over his 53-year-old nationalist rival varies considerably, from 6 to 15 percentage points, depending on the poll. Polls also predict a record high number of people who will either vote empty or not at all.
Earlier this week, Macron took the gloves off in a two-hour, 45-minute debate – the last of the campaign – tearing apart his far-right rival as he sought the votes he needed to win.
Le Pen tried to appeal to working-class voters struggling with rising prices amid the aftermath of Russia’s war in Ukraine, an approach that even Macron acknowledged has resonated with the general public. She said reducing the cost of living would be her priority if she was elected France’s first female president, and she presented herself as a candidate for voters who could not make ends meet.
She says Macron’s presidency has left the country deeply divided. She has repeatedly mentioned the so-called yellow vest protest that rocked his government before the COVID-19 pandemic, with months of violent demonstrations against its economic policies that some say hurt the poorest.
Many Muslims voted for the far left
France’s presidential campaign has been a particular challenge for voters from immigrant backgrounds and religious minorities. Surveys show that a large part of France’s Muslim population – the largest in Western Europe – voted for far-left candidates in the first round, so their vote can be decisive.
Macron also advertises his achievements in the field of environment and climate in an attempt to attract young voters, popular among far-left candidates. Citizens, and especially millennials, voted en masse for Melenchon. Many young voters are particularly concerned about climate issues.
Emmanuel Macron greeted his supporters when he arrived to vote in a polling station in Le Touquet in northern France on Sunday. (Gonzalo Fuentes / Associated Press)
Although Macron was associated with the slogan “Make the planet great again”, during his first five-year term he capitulated to angry protesters in yellow vests, canceling the increase in taxes on fuel prices. Macron said his next prime minister will be in charge of environmental planning as France seeks to become carbon neutral by 2050.
Le Pen, once considered a skeptic of climate change, wants to cut off subsidies for renewable energy. She promised to dismantle wind farms and invest in nuclear and hydropower.
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