Saudi Arabia appears to be betting on Donald Trump’s return to office by refusing to help the United States punish Russia for the invasion of Ukraine and by investing $ 2 billion in a new, untested investment fund run by Trump’s son-in-law Jared Kushner.
In an effort to persuade Riyadh to increase oil production so as to reduce prices by up to 30% and thus limit the Russian government’s revenue, the Biden administration is looking for ways to reassure the Saudi government that it is committed to the kingdom’s security.
The White House said Thursday it was an “iron commitment from the president down,” and the Pentagon said it was working on a draft of a new statement on US-Saudi security agreements, but observers said it was unlikely to meet firm assurances. which the Saudis and other Gulf states require.
The de facto ruler of the kingdom, Mohammed bin Salman, reportedly refused to accept a call from Joe Biden last month, expressing his dissatisfaction with the administration’s restrictions on arms sales; what he saw as an inadequate response to attacks on Saudi Arabia by Hutu forces in Yemen; the publication of a report on the 2018 assassination of the Saudi regime by dissident and Washington Post columnist Jamal Kashoghi; and Biden’s previous refusal to deal personally with the heir to the throne.
Instead, Prince Mohammed is showing signs of relying on the return of Trump in 2024 and the resumption of the Trump administration’s cozy relationship with Riyadh.
There have been calls to investigate the huge investment made by the Saudi Public Investment Fund, controlled by Prince Mohammed, in Affinity Partners, a private investment firm founded by Jared Kushner months after he left the White House and worked as a special adviser to Trump, his father-in-law. .
In doing so, the de facto ruler of the kingdom ignored the warnings of the Saudi fund’s own advisory panel. This worried him about Affinity’s inexperience: Kushner was in real estate before his time at the White House, and his investment experience was not considered good. He was concerned that proper scrutiny of the new company’s operations was “unsatisfactory in all respects” and that it was charging “excessive” fees, according to a report in the New York Times.
“It simply came to our notice then. The Saudis – with Mohammed bin Salman in mind – have chosen Trump over Biden, and they are sticking to their pledge, “said Bruce Riedel, a former senior CIA official who is the director of the Brookings Institution’s intelligence project.
“This is not an unreasonable proposal. Trump gave them everything they wanted: full support in Yemen, support for the assassination of Jamal Hashoghi, whatever they wanted in terms of access to the United States.
John Jenkins, a former UK ambassador to Saudi Arabia, said: “I suspect [the crown prince] he is urging Republicans to win big in the midterm and then regain the presidency, with or without Trump.
He added: “He probably thinks Biden is politically weak and can therefore afford to be cracked. This sends a signal not only to the Democrats but also to the Republican Party. And – judging by the debate raging in DC political circles on these issues – it works.
The Saudi embassy in Washington did not respond to a request for comment.
Top Democrats have reacted fiercely to the revelation of the Saudi investment in the Kushner Fund. Senator Elizabeth Warren called on the Justice Department to “take a really close look” at whether the agreement is illegal.
Senator Chris Murphy tweeted, “Just because breathtaking corruption happens in public doesn’t make it breathtaking.”
Joe Biden in Riyadh in 2011, after the death of Crown Prince Sultan. Photo: AFP / Getty Images
During the first months of the Trump administration, Kushner played an important role in shifting support from former Crown Prince Mohammed bin Nayef to the much younger Mohammed bin Salman, with whom the president’s son-in-law has established a large relationship with the WhatsApp messaging service. After Hashoghi’s assassination, Kushner was also the heir to the throne’s most loyal defender.
As for the Biden administration, it has advocates to reassure the Saudi heir to the throne of the overarching goal of lowering oil prices – its impact on both the Kremlin’s treasury and the politically sensitive price of the pump.
“At the moment, there is a real argument that you can make friends with anyone who is not Russia now,” said a European diplomat. The Pentagon recently held meetings aimed at drafting a statement on US security agreements with Saudi Arabia and other Gulf states.
However, Kirsten Fontaine, a former senior Gulf director at the National Security Council, said that whatever the administration devised was unlikely to come close to regional demands for security guarantees similar to NATO’s Article 5 provisions on mutual security. defense.
“Recently, there has been a big boost for Article 5 in many of these countries,” said Fontaine Rose, now a senior fellow at the Atlantic Council. “But there’s no way they’re going to get it.”
The Pentagon will not comment on its reported work on restructuring security measures in the Gulf. An army spokesman, Major Rob Lodewick, said: “The Ministry of Defense remains committed to helping increase Saudi Arabia’s security against serious external threats.
“We are doing this through cooperation in the field of defense, arms transfers and trade in the field of defense, exercises, training and exchanges, along with a commitment to human rights and mitigation of civil damage.
Even if the administration wants to offer such guarantees, there is no way such an agreement could be approved by Congress, where the progressive wing of the Democratic Party wants Biden to be tougher on Riyadh, especially given the lack of co-operation on oil production. and Russia.
“The United States continues to provide certain types of equipment. They announced several arms sales in the last year alone. There is logistical support and support, “said Seth Binder, director of advocacy for the Middle East Democracy Project. “I think all these things should be on the table, especially if this Saudi regime continues to increase this kind of public pressure on the Biden administration.
However, many observers believe it is unlikely that Muhammad will be influenced by courtship or threats, as the high price of oil increases his budget while he waits for a more flexible administration.
“I do not see much change. “The Saudis have chosen to go with Putin and the level of oil production they want, and the world economy is adjusting to that,” Rydell said. “I don’t think there’s much room for maneuver for Biden either. I think there are strong forces against that.”
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