Progressive conservatives in Ontario are campaigning as if COVID-19 is over – but experts say the pandemic is likely to color the campaign in some way and may even give the incumbent party a boost when it comes to broken promises.
Although the official campaign has not yet begun, Prime Minister Doug Ford and his cabinet ministers are touring the province, making a series of promises under the banner of “building Ontario”, stopping in the Greater Toronto region as well as in the southwest and north. Transport is a major focus, with promises to build highways, subways and electric vehicles, as well as healthcare infrastructure such as hospital and long-term care expansion forecasts.
The Tories appear to be fully focused on rebuilding the province from the pandemic and are positioned as the only party that can do so ahead of the expected June 2 vote.
“They’re really trying to keep going as if the pandemic was in the rearview mirror,” said Cameron Anderson, a professor of political science at Western University.
That tone, including the move to eliminate almost all public health measures related to viruses in the six weeks before the election campaign, is a change for incumbent Prime Minister Doug Ford, Anderson said, as Ford seemed more inclined to present during much of the pandemic. public health restrictions than other conservative prime ministers in Canada.
The Tories are trying to “change the channel” during the pandemic
Susie Heath, a senior consultant at Crestview Strategy and a former Liberal employee, said the wave of funding announcements also looks like an attempt to “change the channel” of the pandemic and reassure frustrated voters who have been negatively affected by measures such as closure. business in the last few years.
“They hope that these voters may not have long memories and look at all the good things they are announcing, perhaps in their own riding,” she said.
This hope for brief memories may also apply to a number of promises from the central campaign of the Tory victory in 2018 that have not yet been fulfilled: beer and wine are not yet available in stores, and bills for hydromassage facilities have not been reduced with 12 per cent
The Ford government has also changed its position on major issues over the past year, raising the minimum wage to $ 15 an hour after canceling a planned wage increase years earlier and supporting infrastructure and electric vehicle production after halting the construction of charging stations and termination of buyers’ discounts soon after passing to power.
When it comes to flip flops and broken promises from four years ago, analysts speaking to The Canadian Press said the changing world pandemic could provoke some forgiveness and understanding from voters.
“The pandemic will color much of the assessment of the government’s work to the point where it will obscure, I guess, some of the previous promises or policies that may have been changed or changed or not yet considered,” Anderson said. , noting that the Ford government has shaped some of these policy changes in response to the changed world, which could mitigate potential damage.
The shops are pictured here, boarded up on Queen Street West in Toronto on April 28, 2020, due to a blockade shortly after the pandemic began. (Craig Chivers / CBC)
“It will be a tough battle for Ford”
Shakir Chambers of Earnscliffe Strategies, also a conservative strategist who worked on the platform for Ford’s 2018 campaign, said the pandemic would remain an “X factor” throughout the campaign.
But he said the move to focus on non-pandemic issues, such as carmaking, is good for computers, as it allows them to connect with people in terms of labor and accessibility at a time when much of the electorate the party base is tired of the pandemic measures and wants to discuss other priorities.
Another potential factor, he said, is the influence of new right-wing parties, such as the New Blue and the Ontario Party, which have fueled outrage against the government over measures such as blockades and vaccination policies, although most of those policies have ended.
Similar topics are behind the huge popularity of the candidate for the leadership of the Federal Conservatives Pierre Poalievre. Chambers said problems in the federal race for leadership and breakaway parties on the right could spread and affect Ford’s campaign, even as he tries to shift the focus from COVID-19.
“It’s going to be a tough battle for Ford,” Chambers said. “How to run it so you don’t lose your party base, especially in this type of contested area, but at the same time don’t exclude the majority of Ontario residents who need some level of public health restrictions,” to be safe. It will be an interesting walk for him if he moves on. “
Ontario Liberal Party leader Stephen Del Duca speaks at a news conference in Scarborough on April 19, 2022 (Alex Lupul / CBC)
Liberals appear to be gaining ground, according to polls
Ford is entering the campaign with the current advantage, and recent polls show that progressive conservatives are ahead of other parties, although the Liberals seem to be gaining some ground. Chambers noted that even with this obvious advantage, Ford is fighting for a majority, as all opposition leaders have indicated they will not support a minority for the computer.
Computers need 63 seats to win a majority. This is achievable for Ford’s party, Chambers said, but the Tories are also launching a campaign without a significant number of incumbents, including heavy cabinet ministers such as Health Minister and Deputy Prime Minister Christine Elliott, and several GTA seats could compete with other countries.
Jeffrey Rosenthal, a professor of statistics at the University of Toronto who analyzes polls, noted that anything could happen during a campaign to change the picture – including left-wing voters responding to early polls.
“There are a lot of voters who probably want computers to come out and they don’t care if the NDP or the Liberals come in. Many of these voters, you can imagine, were influenced by the early elections as the elections heated up, “he said.
“What I see most in the coming months is what will happen to this balance between the NDP and the Liberals. If it unites around one party or another, it will change everything.”
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