Conservative MPs are preparing to lose hundreds of seats in local elections next week after spending the weekend listening to voters on the doorstep lamenting Boris Johnson’s leadership.
Some Tory MPs believe that a poor set of results on May 5 may be the reason for a vote of confidence in the prime minister, who now has three separate investigations into the affair with the party door hanging over him.
One Northern Conservative MP said he expected the party to lose 750 seats next week, while another from the South said he feared the party could suffer as Tory voters remain at home in crowds.
A ConservativeHome poll released on Sunday found that 58% of Tory members believe the scandal with the party was exaggerated by the media and not important to voters.
But a Tory MP from a wealthy constituency said: “Partygate is still on the doorstep. People are raising the leadership of the Prime Minister. I’m afraid they’ll just stay home. ” He also predicted the loss of hundreds of council seats.
Another Conservative MP, critical of Johnson, said: “People will come after him after the election. He is an existential threat to the Conservative Party and to democracy.
A Labor spokesman said Tory MPs were “managing expectations” by exaggerating claims about the scale of the Conservatives’ possible losses in next week’s local elections.
Johnson, who was fined for a party on Downing Street for his birthday in June 2020, in violation of Covid-19 rules, faces the possibility of receiving more police fines for attending other blockades on Downing Street. He also faces a new question from lawmakers as to whether he deliberately misled parliament on the issue.
He is also expected to receive a horrific assessment of his leadership from Sue Gray, a senior government official tasked with investigating the partygate affair, whose full report has not yet been released.
A Whitehall employee who worked on Gray’s investigation described his content as “bad” for the prime minister. “We will not escape the fact that the prime minister’s leadership is bad and Sue was very critical of it,” he said.
Another person familiar with the situation said that criticism would be “subjective” for Johnson. The official added: “Under normal circumstances, it would be difficult to see how the prime minister could proceed. But this prime minister is very different. “
Gray published a brief draft of his report in February before metropolitan police launched their investigation, Operation Hillman, against partygate. Once the latter is over, Gray will finalize his report, and Downing Street said it will be published.
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One of Gray’s allies said there was no “time indication” of when it would be published. “We are completely in the hands of the Met and they have not been exactly communicative throughout this process.
A Tory backbencher said: “Partygate has not disappeared in any way and has the potential to explode again. Local elections will be a key moment for disgruntled lawmakers.
A former minister said: “Many people abstain.” He said things could be fixed in the summer after the May 5th election, the completion of the Met Police investigation and the publication of Gray’s report.
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