Moldovan President Maya Sandu convened a meeting of her Security Council on Tuesday after a series of incidents in the breakaway Moldovan republic of Transnistria and a warning from Moscow that the Russian-backed region could be involved in the war in Ukraine.
Transnistria, which borders western Ukraine, is controlled by pro-Russian separatists and constantly hosts 1,500 Russian troops, as well as a large arms depot.
Last week, a senior Russian commander said Russia’s new offensive was aimed at taking control of southern Ukraine and gaining access to Transnistria, raising concerns that the small Eastern European country could become a new hotbed in growing tensions between Moscow and the West. .
On Tuesday morning, local authorities said two antennas broadcasting Russian radio broadcasts had been blown up, the second episode of violence reported in the enclave in so many days after unknown assailants fired a hand grenade at the Tiraspol region’s Ministry of State Security on Monday. .
Commenting on the first blast at the security ministry, the Moldovan government said the incident was aimed at “creating pretexts to tighten the security situation” in the breakaway region.
Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told reporters on Tuesday that he was “concerned” about the news coming from Transnistria.
Hours earlier, the leader of the self-proclaimed republic in Donetsk, Denis Pushilin, told Russia’s state news agency RIA Novosti that Russia must “take into account what is happening in Transnistria” when planning the next stage of its military campaign.
Transnistrian officials announced a number of new security measures on Tuesday, further raising fears of a possible escalation in the breakaway state. These measures include setting up military checkpoints at the entrances to cities in the region and canceling the annual Victory Day parade on May 9th.
Bob Dean, an expert on Moldova and a senior fellow at the Clingendael Institute’s think tank, said it was difficult to know at this point whether the latest incidents were a Russian-flagged operation or genuine sabotage by anti-Russian groups.
But he said recent Russian rhetoric points to some of Russia’s long-term goals for Transnistria.
“We have seen that the topic of Transnistria is becoming more and more openly discussed in the Russian public. Russia’s recent statements may be an indication of Moscow’s ambitions there.
According to Dean, it is unlikely that Russian forces will be able to organize an offensive on the border with Moldova at this time, given that Moscow is currently fighting hard in the eastern region of Donbass. To reach Transnistria, Moscow will have to organize an offensive on Odessa, which was hampered by the recent sinking of the Moscow cruiser, which forced Russian warships to move away from Ukraine’s shores.
Dean was also skeptical that Transnistria’s own force of about 7,500 troops would be used to attack Ukraine from its western border.
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“There is little appetite for battles in Ukraine among Transnistrian troops, as well as the population in the region as a whole, many of whom go to Moldova to escape any potential violence.
“Like Belarus, the region does not want to be fully involved in this war,” he said, adding that Moscow’s recent rhetoric could be a ploy to get Ukraine to withdraw its troops from Donbass to its western border.
With Russia’s support, Transnistria waged war against Moldova in the early 1990s, leaving the territory with de facto independence and a permanent Russian garrison. Russia’s state-run media – widespread in Transnistria – have played a significant role in strengthening pro-Russian attitudes in the enclave as Moldova has moved west under its liberal president.
Last week, Sandu signed a law banning St. George’s orange and black stripes, which are widely popular in Russia as a way to show public support for the government and military, a move that angered Russian officials. In the same bill, Sandu also banned the war signs “Z” and “V”, used for the first time by the Russian armed forces.
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