Sinn Féin is about to be the largest party in Stormont and elect the first minister of Northern Ireland for the first time.
Irish nationalists have a six-point lead over the Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) in the latest poll ahead of the decisive elections on 5 May, with experts warning of an impending constitutional crisis.
DUP leader Sir Jeffrey Donaldson said he was “not worried” about the shock poll and said he was confident his party would still win the Stormont election.
But if the latest results are reflected in next week’s vote, it will make the nationalists the biggest players in Stormont – and allow the party to nominate Vice President Michel O’Neill as prime minister.
Support for Sinn Fein is 26% and DUP – 20%, according to the latest LucidTalk survey commissioned by the Belfast Telegraph.
The DUP had previously threatened to step down from Northern Ireland’s executive branch if Boris Johnson’s actions were not taken to reject the Northern Ireland Protocol.
Downing Street is believed to be drafting legislation for the Queen’s May 10 speech, aimed at unilaterally “breaking” parts of the protocol it dislikes – despite Brussels’ warnings that it would violate Mr Johnson’s treaty signed earlier. two years now.
Tory peer and sociologist Lord Hayward has warned of “serious constitutional consequences” for the whole of the UK if the Stormont power-sharing agreements collapse in the midst of an ongoing dispute with the EU.
But Sir Jeffrey reduced Sinn Fein’s lead in Friday’s poll. “I don’t think the polls reflect what I find on the doorstep … I’m not worried about the polls and I think political experts who rely on their reputation for poll results may be surprised by May 5.”
The DUP chief added: “Most trade unionists acknowledge that the DUP is the only trade union party that can win, they do not want to see Sinn Fein win and move forward its divisive agenda for border surveys.
Sinn Fein downplayed the DUP’s attempts to talk about a potential referendum on the reunification of Ireland. But Ms O’Neill said last week that Brexit had led many people to question Northern Ireland’s place in the United Kingdom.
The leader of the nationalist Stormont Party said: “I think many people are now considering a constitutional position because Brexit has taken us out of the EU, stolen our European citizenship.
The poll comes after a former senior government official attacked the behavior of Mr Johnson’s government in the ongoing Brexit protocol dispute with Brussels.
Dr Andrew McCormick, who played a central role in Stormont while the government negotiated a Brexit deal with the EU, said Mr Johnson and his team were responsible “fairly and impartially”.
In an article for The Constitution Society, the former Mandarin said: “There is little credibility in any argument that the UK government has either not foreseen the consequences of what it has agreed or has been limited and unable to choose another option.
On Thursday, Jacob Rees-Mogg acknowledged that the Brexit bureaucracy was having a detrimental effect on supermarket food prices as he defended his decision to lift the ongoing controls on EU imports.
The Brexit Minister told ITV that the control “would be an act of self-harm” and acknowledged that some price increases would be “quite significant”. He added: “Free trade is extremely beneficial for consumers.”
The last Lucidtalk poll was conducted online between 22 and 24 April using the well-established online opinion panel of 13,816 members, which he said was balanced to be demographically representative of Northern Ireland.
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