Rebel Conservative lawmakers fear Boris Johnson may run in a general election within months in a bid to save his prime ministerial job – but party chairman Oliver Dowden dismissed the idea as disastrous.
One MP hoping to oust Johnson said they were “deadly serious” in their belief that the prime minister could seek another term by calling for a vote this fall, especially if he wins time at number 10. by winning a vote of confidence before that summer.
Some of his critics are convinced that the threshold of 54 Tory MPs needed to trigger a no-confidence vote could be exceeded soon after additional fines are expected due to the Partygate scandal, poor results in next week’s local elections or the likely loss of Wakefield in his upcoming by-elections.
However, they believe Johnson has a good chance of winning a vote that requires the support of more than 50 percent of his lawmakers – giving him a one-year reprieve before he can stand up to another.
A Conservative MP said Dowden had suppressed speculation about early general elections by personally assuring his colleagues that “there is no way” to go to the polls when Johnson’s ratings are so bad and Labor is a few points ahead.
But the MP also said that if Johnson faced a serious choice between ousting his own party and putting it to the vote in the general public, many believe he would choose the latter.
“He could try to run another campaign against the establishment by standing up to members of parliament, which is what we fear most,” they said.
Another Tory MP who wants Johnson to leave said there was nervousness in the back benches, especially among so-called Red Wall MPs, that Johnson’s “self-interest” and reputation as a risk-taker could make him bet on elections. .
A high-ranking party source insisted that the autumn elections were not a “working assumption” and pointed to the forthcoming changes in the borders, which are expected to benefit the Tories and will not take effect until 2023. But they added: “One thing, which is always a good idea to try to maintain a wide range of options. ”
More than 6,800 seats in 200 councils across the UK will be grabbed in local elections next week, including every seat in London, Scotland and Wales.
Both major parties are downplaying their prospects, with Labor citing a strong performance in the last contest in these seats in 2018, and Conservatives stressing that they are lagging behind in national polls.
Tory strategists say they have serious problems at Wandsworth and Westminster’s leading London councils. Labor insists they remain unlikely targets, but hopes to take Barnett in north London, which has been largely Tory-controlled since its inception in 1964 (with a coalition of Labor and Liberal Democrats ruling between 1994 and 2002). .
Outside the capital, the Tories are hoping to win in places like Stoke-on-Trent and Sandwell in the West Midlands, where they won parliamentary seats in the 2019 general election, but lag far behind Labor-level Labor.
Conservative lawmakers will closely monitor developments in their constituencies, with the progress of opposition parties pointing to potential problems in future general elections.
However, a senior Tory party source reduced the risk of new problems for Johnson, saying: “It is well known that local elections can be used as a protest vote.
The Liberal Democrats made modest gains in the disgraced post of former MP Owen Patterson in North Shropshire in the last local elections before revoking almost 23,000 majorities to oust the Conservatives last year.
Labor sources say their numbers will be closely monitored by council results in 50 key parliamentary seats the party believes it must win to win the next election – including Stevenage, Bury North and South and Glasgow.
“If we have a night where we show the right progress in the places where we have to win the next election, that’s good for us,” they said, adding that Labor will also be happy if Tory MPs continue to procrastinate on the future of Johnson, given his poor personal grades.
Dowden told conservative activists at his party’s spring conference in Blackpool that Johnson saw the local election as the beginning of a two-year campaign aimed at the next general election.
The prime minister told reporters on his way to India during his recent trip that he fully intends to fight in the next general election and cannot imagine resigning over the Downing Street party scandal.
But some are concerned that the government seems to be running out of ideas. A cabinet brainstorming session on the cost of living earlier this week led to several specific ideas besides making a two-year MOT – a plan quickly rejected by the AA group of motorists.
Meanwhile, Chancellor Rishi Sunak appears to be flirting with labor policy over an unforeseen tax on energy companies this week, after repeatedly rejecting it.
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