A revolt by traditional conservatives in the party’s real blue strongholds during the council elections this week will increase pressure on Boris Johnson to step down as leader, party officials say.
An MP told The Independent that there would be a “panic” if the results were bad on Thursday, the first opportunity for voters to pronounce a verdict on Mr Johnson after the Partygate scandal.
The election comes after a new poll by The Independent found that more than a quarter (27 percent) of voters who supported the Tories in the 2019 general election said they were less likely to do so again if Johnson remained leader.
The Savanta poll showed Labor increasing its lead over the Tories by two percentage points compared to a similar poll last month, up 40 percent from the Conservatives’ 34.
And that showed a sharp drop in Mr Johnson’s personal ratings since he became the first incumbent prime minister to be fined for breaking the law, with a favor rating of -28 (33 per cent say he’s doing a good job and 61 per cent a bad one). compared to -19 last month.
About 65% – including 46% of Tory voters – said he would have to resign if he received more fines or was sharply criticized in Senior Civil Servant Sue Gray’s report on Partygate, and 63% said his apologies had so far been inadequate. Only 28 percent believe his account that he did not know he was breaking the law when he attended a party on Downing Street, and 63 percent – including 52 percent of Tory voters – say he is lying.
As the Conservatives defended only about 1,200 of the 6,800 seats in England, Scotland and Wales on Thursday, the loss of just over 350 councilors would be seen as harmful and 800 would be disastrous for Mr Johnson.
Labor is hoping for progress in the so-called Red Wall areas of the Midlands and North, lost by the Tories in the 2019 election, and in London boroughs such as Barnett and Wandsworth, but insiders acknowledge that their numerical progress will be limited by the fact that it did relatively well the last time most of the seats were contested in 2018.
But there is a growing focus on Tories ‘traditionally hard seats in colored belts, which troubled lawmakers increasingly fear will be marginalized by voters’ aversion to the Johnson regime.
A Tory MP told The Independent: “There is no doubt that Partygate will have an impact by keeping our voters at home or registering a protest vote and talking to colleagues, those in the districts of origin are the ones who are the darkest for what lies ahead.
Johnson of the United Kingdom rejects calls for his resignation over a fine for the “party”.
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1 / 4UK’s Johnson rejects calls for his resignation amid a “partygate” fine.
Johnson of the United Kingdom rejects calls for his resignation over a fine for the “party”.
British politics
British politics
Copyright 2022 Associated Press. All rights reserved
Johnson of the United Kingdom rejects calls for his resignation over a fine for the “party”.
British politics
British politics
Copyright 2022 Associated Press. All rights reserved
Johnson of the United Kingdom rejects calls for his resignation over a fine for the “party”.
British politics
British politics
Copyright 2022 Associated Press. All rights reserved
Johnson of the United Kingdom rejects calls for his resignation over a fine for the “party”.
British politics
British politics
Copyright 2022 Associated Press. All rights reserved
“Their agitation suggests that they may face a sharp drop in support, while they appear to be holding on to councils with a larger working-class population.
Conservative election guru Robert Hayward agreed: “The Tories are facing their biggest problems in their home districts and in what one would describe as upper middle class constituencies, university education – Surrey, Hertfordshire and Hampshire.
“They will be next Thursday, especially difficult in these areas. And given that the vast majority of MPs in these areas are Tories, this is likely to worry these people quite noticeably. “
Conservative MPs in supposedly safe places will be “unsettled” if they lose a significant number of advisers on Thursday night, Lord Hayward said.
“This will confirm all the worst fears in the parliamentary party and will increase the pressure on Boris Johnson,” he added.
This may not immediately turn into more letters of no confidence addressed to the chairman of the 1922 commission, Sir Graham Brady, who must give a ballot for Mr Johnson’s leadership if requested by 54 deputies.
While many lawmakers have previously said they are suspending sentencing until the May election, Westminster feels that because police are still handing out fines for breaches of blocking laws, the timing of the decision will be postponed until Ms. Gray’s final report. .
A new poll shows that 27% of voters who supported the Tories in the 2019 general election are less likely to do so again if Boris Johnson remains leader
(Getty Images)
A local MP told The Independent: “There is still anger on the doorstep of the parties. This disappeared shortly after Russia invaded Ukraine and the prime minister’s decisive response was widely praised, but he returned after being fined. It’s hard to know where we are until the process is over. “
Another judge said: “Thursday seems less important than a few months ago. The poor set of results will panic colleagues, but if there is a mixed picture, it postpones things until the final result of the Partygate investigation, which from what we have seen so far will not be beautiful.
The Liberal Democrats make no secret of the fact that they see the so-called Blue Wall with traditional Tory seats – many of which are home to Conservatives who oppose Brexit – as fertile ground after the spectacular Chesham and Amersham and North Shropshire by-elections. .
They hope to take advisers Thursday in areas ranging from Wimbledon and Richmond in south-west London to suburban areas such as Elmbridge in Surrey or Harpendon in Hertfordshire and Harrogate in North Yorkshire.
Their deputy leader, Daisy Cooper, told The Independent that this week was a time for voters angry at Partygate and the cost-of-life crisis to express their feelings.
Liberal Democrat leader Daisy Cooper says the party hopes to win Tory voters in some areas
(PA)
“This is really the best opportunity for voters to send a message to Boris Johnson and his government, but also to make them listen,” said the St. Albans MP. “I think this is really, really critical.
“The feeling I get from a lot of people – including former Conservative voters for life – is that they’re watching Boris Johnson and his government and they’re just thinking, ‘They’re not on my side.’ They don’t talk to me. I do not share their values and they do not share mine.
“These are people who are often internationalists, they are environmentalists, they are in favor of business, they are in favor of public services.
“They look at this government and they see a government that is breaking the rules. They see a government that is in it for itself. They see a government that follows this sense of one rule for them, one for everyone else, and all the time they see their taxes go up and they really start fighting. ”
Even if the Conservatives fail on Thursday, one factor in today’s vote that will give Johnson hope to stay is the lack of an obvious alternative leader.
Rishi Sunak came under fire from voters over the status of his non-citizen wife Akshata Murti, which allowed her to pay significantly less taxes
(PA conductor)
Following his poorly approved mini-budget and The Independent’s revelations about his homeless wife’s status and his previous possession of a green card giving him the right to reside in the United States, Chancellor Rishi Sunak’s ratings fell sharply during the month by +12 (48 percent). think it does a good job and 36 percent bad) in March to -17 now (36 percent good work, 53 percent bad).
Although he was acquitted of violating the Ministerial Code by Lord Hyde, Downing Street Ethics Adviser, Mr Sunak was not so easily forgiven by voters. Fifty percent said Akshata Merti’s wife’s tax issues were a matter of resignation for the chancellor, compared to 35 percent who did not. And 46 percent said they should give up the green card, which requires them to pay tax in the United States and commit to settling permanently in the country, compared to 34 percent who said they shouldn’t.
The numbers that see him as the best leader fell from 17 to 9 percent (and from 21 to 10 among Tory voters), lowering him from an undisputed favorite to one of a group of potential contenders such as Liz Trus, Sajid Javid (both backed). by 6 percent) and Jeremy Hunt (7 percent), neither of whom has garnered significant support.
Although Johnson had only 21 percent support as the best man for a Tory leader, his closest rival in the poll was “someone else” at 20.
– The Savanta survey interviewed 2,231 adults in the UK on April 22-24.
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