Keir Starmer called for problems when he said there was “absolutely no comparison” between his working holiday and that of the prime minister.
To most people, the Labor leader’s protest that we were “too busy” with work on last year’s local election campaign sounded strikingly similar to Boris Johnson’s defense. The Prime Minister insisted that he and his staff worked very hard and stopped only for a moment to say a few words of thanks or to plant a cake.
So Labor may complain, but it may come as no surprise that the Conservatives are campaigning to portray Starmer as a hypocrite, or that he has had to appear on the front page of the Daily Mail for three days in a row. Starmer’s best answer would be not to argue about the issue, but to change the subject – and let the record speak for itself.
For all the complexity of which law applies where and when, Starmer is happy that the Metropolitan Police, advised by the Royal Prosecution, have concluded that Johnson’s birthday cake violates the law and that Durham’s forces have come to different conclusions about his bottle of beer. In the end, that’s all. Johnson is a lawbreaker, and Starmer is not.
The only people who are interested in the unfairness of this distinction are committed conservatives – and many of them don’t have much time for the prime minister anyway, because they thought he should never have taken legislative measures to block in the first place. The headlines of the Daily Mail may reinforce the views of readers who have never liked Starmer, but I doubt they have much effect on floating voters.
The damage caused by violating the laws blocking politicians has already happened and has been borne by Boris Johnson. Those voters who feel strongly about this will continue to do so if they have lost relatives during the blockade and are not allowed to see them. In others, the effect will fade. Barnard Castle still appears occasionally in focus groups, but I thought Johnson would pay a higher price than him for failing to fire Dominic Cummings for his blocking violations.
There may be more notices of punishment for Johnson, but they are unlikely to cause further damage, as opposed to reminding people for a few days of the damage already done. I suspect that the effect of the possible publication of Sue Gray’s report will be similar. People have already decided what they think of the prime minister who is in charge of breaking the law on Downing Street. And whatever the opinion of the floating voters about the saga, Keira Starmer is not present in it. This is good and bad news for Labor.
I know of a focus group study conducted the other day in the Midlands, which contains many marginal places of the Tories. The group consisted of people who voted for Labor in 2005 but voted for the Tories in 2019. They were spontaneous and deeply angry with the blocking parties, but were empty when asked what they thought of Starmer.
The group’s organizer said he had “not yet met a single floating voter who could muster an iota of enthusiasm for him”. Remarkably, older voters cited David Miliband as the party’s big missed opportunity, which only shows that when a party makes a wrong turn, it can take a long time to get back on track.
Starmer has to worry more than the guerrilla Tories, who point to pictures of him with a bottle of beer. His problem is that most of the issues that work in his favor now will fade by the time of the next election. The anger from the blocking parties will fade. The cost of living is likely to decline by the summer of 2024.
To keep up to date with all the latest opinions and comments, sign up for our free weekly Voices Dispatches newsletter by clicking here
On all the issues on which opinion polls currently report an unprecedented lead for Labor, sentiment is likely to change. The current unusual view of Labor as a low-tax party, for example, is unlikely to survive a pre-election tax cut.
As for crime, after everyone has made a joke about the criminal in №10, restoring police numbers will at least give Johnson a chance to fight for equality. Even in the NHS, where Labor will always maintain a faith-based advantage, it is possible that if the number of waiting lists moves in the right direction in the year before election day, enough voters will decide that it is less likely that you can to see a personal doctor in the Labor government.
Starmer can afford to reject the Tories’ campaign against double standards of blocking, but he has a long way to go before he has as much influence on former Labor voters as even David Miliband.
Add Comment