Control of the House of Representatives and the Senate is at stake this fall – Democrats have a weak majority in both houses. Here’s where we start this week, looking at the national political environment of 35,000 feet before plunging into the first major intra-party Senate battle of the year – the GOP primary on Tuesday in Ohio. All four of these times include popular incumbent presidents (Franklin Roosevelt in 1934, John F. Kennedy in 1962, Bill Clinton in 1998, and George W. Bush in 2002). The latter three had an approval rating of at least 60% during the interim terms, while the former did not have a survey available.
President Joe Biden’s approval rating is stuck in the low 40s. There is no registered president with a first term who has acquired this basis, which Biden must win in the six months before the midterm elections to reach 50% approval, let alone 60%.
Republicans currently hold a 3-point lead in the Congressional election. There is no historic case in which Republicans were ahead in the general vote at the time and did not win the House in November. Republicans are also preferred in the Senate, where a net profit from one seat would give them control. (Check out my piece from a few months ago.) But there have been more examples of the White House party maintaining its positions or winning Senate seats in the interim terms than what we’ve seen in the House. Republicans, for example, had a net profit of two seats in 2018 and suffered no losses in the Senate in 1982.
For the Senate Democrats to have a good election night in November, some combination of at least three things must happen.
1. Republicans nominate weak candidates.
The Senate map for 2022 is not so great for the Republican Party, with all Democrats running for re-election in states that Biden won in 2020, and Republicans defending two seats in Biden.
Most neutral observers note that leading Republican candidates in the high-ranking Senate race in Arizona, Georgia and New Hampshire are not the strongest candidates. This represents 21% of all GOP Senate contenders this year. (While three weak contenders in the 435-member House are unlikely to affect the final result, this could make a huge difference in the 100-member Senate.) Republicans have had this problem before. Primary voters in both 2010 and 2012 opposed safer bets and chose tougher ideological candidates. The result was that Democrats had smaller-than-expected losses in the Senate in 2010 and won positions two years later.
Of course, the environment is so bad for Democrats that a few bad candidates probably won’t stop Republicans from winning the majority.
2. The economy is improving.
Inflation is skyrocketing, disposable income has fallen and even the nation’s GDP has fallen. When the economy is the main concern, it is difficult to win as an active country. The good news for Democrats is that there are still six months until the election. Although none of these indicators are likely to improve dramatically, all are expected to improve at least slightly by November. The link between economic performance and medium-term performance is more volatile than in the presidential election. But we know that voters tend to put more emphasis on recent economic growth than just key figures. We also know that Biden’s economic approval rating has shifted almost hand in hand with his overall approval rating.
3. Everyone who approves of Biden votes for the Democrats.
Biden’s approval rating will be key this fall, at a time when direct voting is very high.
Historically, the magic mark for the midterm election is 60% approval. But that may not be the case when more Americans vote for the White House party, when they approve of the president, and vote against when they disapprove.
So Biden’s approval rating may only have to be around 50% – if not a little lower if Democrats have an advantage as candidates.
Biden’s immediate predecessor may give him some hope. The rating of Trump’s approval, according to the initial poll for the election day in 2018, was about 4 points higher than what the polls showed at that time four years ago.
But Biden will need even more improvement from Trump. If he manages to get 47% approval by election day, it may be enough.
All of this may be far away, but it is the only opportunity Democrats have.
Ohio Senate Primary Elections: A Review of 2024?
Several Republicans are fighting in the May 3 primary for the open seat of retired Republican Sen. Rob Portman. US Representative Tim Ryan is a big favorite of the Democrats. Top Republican candidates include Sen. Matt Dolan, businessman Mike Gibbons, former Treasurer Josh Mandel, former State Speaker Jane Timken and author JD Vance. A Fox poll this week found that Vance, backed by Trump’s support, catapulted from 11% in a previous Fox poll to a GOP leader by 23%, to 18% to Mandel, 13% to Gibbons, 11% to Dolan. and 6% on Timken. To be clear, this is a race that is too close to be announced. The true margin of error (ie 95% confidence interval) for the difference between the first two candidates in the poll in the last three weeks of the campaign is about plus or minus 22 points since 2000. It would not be surprising if both Mandel or Vance in the end they win by a huge margin or if someone else wins. In the end, a quarter of the electorate remains undecided, according to a Fox poll. Trump’s support for Vance was a blow to Mandel, who was a huge stimulus to the former president. He also described the primary as a proxy for 2024. Mandel was backed by Texas Sen. Ted Cruz, who, like Trump, is looking at an offer for 2024.
Cruz is lagging behind Trump by a wide margin in the 2024 election, and Mandel’s loss on Tuesday will only reinforce that Cruz’s name doesn’t cost much to Republicans across the country.
On the other hand, a victory for Vance in the primary would do the opposite for Trump. It cannot be emphasized enough that Vance looked almost complete until the former president approved him. Although Trump may not be as popular with Republicans as he was a few years ago, Vance’s victory will show that for everyone else, Trump is still a force to be reckoned with in the Republican primary.
If Mandel or another Republican wins, then we will have a lot to talk about after that.
For your short meetings: Welcome to the best time of the year
Sunday marks the beginning of May if you do not have your calendar in front of you. And while this fearless analyst may prefer winter snow, most of you disagree.
In fact, I looked at polls from 1960, 2005, and last year, and they all found the same thing: more Americans choose May as their favorite month or second favorite month.
According to Zlatokos, for many it seems to be neither too hot nor too cold, but just right.
Summary on April 24: Last week, I said that the poll showing support for the legalization of marijuana was the highest ever. For those of you who hope marijuana will be legalized nationally, CNN reports show that, at least at this time, there are not enough Senate votes to make it happen.
Residual surveys
Economic confidence remains quite low: the latest Gallup monthly survey shows Americans’ economic confidence rating (which on a scale of -100 to +100 combines current and future views of the economy) remains at -39. This is related to last month’s lowest rating since the Great Recession more than a decade ago. Stress leads to retirement: One-third of all current students pursuing a bachelor’s or associate’s degree said they were considering dropping out of college for at least a semester, according to Gallup. The number one reason (76% for undergraduate students and 63% for those receiving an associate’s degree) was emotional stress. Children’s screen time increased during the pandemic: In the no-jokes department, the Pew Research Center has new data on children’s screen time since the beginning of the coronavirus pandemic. Parents of a child aged 11 or younger say their child is more likely to use a tablet (68% of parents in March 2020 to 81% in April 2021), a smartphone (63% to 71%) ) and game console (from 45% to 51%).
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