May 9, known as “Victory Day” in Russia, marks the country’s defeat over the Nazis in 1945. Western officials have long believed that Putin will use the symbolic meaning and propaganda value of that day to declare either a military achievement in Ukraine , a major escalation of hostilities – or both.
Officials have begun to refine a scenario that Putin officially declared war on Ukraine on May 9. To date, Putin has insisted on calling the brutal monthly conflict a “special military operation”, effectively banning words such as invasion and war.
“I think he will try to withdraw from his ‘special operation,'” British Defense Secretary Ben Wallace told LBC Radio last week. “He turned the field, laying the groundwork so he could say, ‘Look, this is a war against the Nazis now, and what I need is more people.’ I need more Russian cannon fodder. “
During the conflict, Putin constantly portrayed his invasion of Ukraine, a country with a Jewish president, as a campaign of alleged “denazification,” a description rejected by both historians and political observers.
Wallace added that he would not be surprised, and I have no information, that he would probably announce on this May Day that “we are now at war with the world’s Nazis and we must mobilize the Russian people en masse.”
The official declaration of war on May 9 could potentially boost public support for the invasion. In addition, under Russian law, this will allow Putin to mobilize reserve forces and call up conscripts that officials say Russia desperately needs amid growing labor shortages. Western and Ukrainian officials have estimated that at least 10,000 Russian soldiers have been killed in the war since Russia invaded just over two months ago.
Russian battlefield “anemic”
After a series of military and logistical failures, Moscow has focused on the Donbass region of eastern Ukraine, which has been on the front lines of the 2014 Russia-Ukraine conflict.
But a U.S. official on Monday described Russia’s military efforts there as “anemic.”
“They will move on and then declare victory and then withdraw their troops, just to allow the Ukrainians to get it back,” the official told reporters at a Pentagon briefing.
The official said the problems plaguing the Russian military since their initial strike have not been resolved.
“They still suffer from poor command and control, low morale in many units, less than ideal logistics,” the official said.
Russian forces are also seeking to avoid risks that could lead to further casualties of their exhausted forces, the official said, describing the ground war in the area as “very cautious, very lukewarm”.
Meanwhile, Ukrainian forces are making significant progress in pushing the Russians around Kharkiv, in the northwestern part of Donbass, the official said.
“It’s an incredible effort that again hasn’t received many headlines and not attracted much attention, but this is just another part of the strong Ukrainian resistance that they continue to show,” the official said.
Putin’s other options for May 9
With less than a week until Victory Day on May 9, Moscow can look to places other than Donbass to make a statement.
Other options include annexing the breakaway territories of Luhansk and Donetsk in eastern Ukraine, imposing a major push for Odessa to the south, or declaring full control of the southern port city of Mariupol.
The United States has “very credible” intelligence reports that Russia will try to annex Luhansk and Donetsk “sometime in mid-May,” US Ambassador to the OSCE Michael Carpenter said Monday. There are also indications that Russia may plan to declare and annex a “people’s republic” in the southeastern city of Kherson.
U.S. State Department spokesman Ned Price said Monday that there is “a good reason to believe that the Russians will do everything possible to use” May 9 for propaganda purposes.
“We have seen the Russians really redouble their propaganda efforts, probably almost certainly, as a means of distracting attention from their tactical and strategic failures on the battlefield in Ukraine,” Price told a State Department briefing.
Price added that it would be a great irony if Moscow used the occasion of Victory Day to declare war, which in itself would allow them to grow recruits in a way they are unable to do now. in a way that would be tantamount to revealing to the world that their military efforts are failing, that they are interfering in their military campaign and military goals. “
“I am absolutely confident that we will hear more from Moscow by May 9,” Price added. “I am fully convinced that you will hear more from the United States, from our partners, including our NATO partners, also on the eve of May 9.”
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