So far, the United States and its European allies have maintained a united front against Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. But two and a half months after the war, some signs of friction began to appear.
They focus on America’s determination, growing with Ukraine’s military successes, to ensure that the conflict weakens Russia “to the point that it cannot do the things it did when it invaded Ukraine,” said Defense Minister Lloyd J. Austin III said it last month.
European powers, in contrast, do not want a long war of attrition that risks escalation or what they see as a dangerous humiliation for Russia. They are more focused on securing a ceasefire in Ukraine and withdrawing Russian troops, at least to the lines of February 23, which existed before the war. They believe it is extremely important to maintain a diplomatic dialogue with Russian President Vladimir Putin.
“Together, we must never succumb to the temptation of humiliation or the spirit of revenge, because they have ravaged the roads of peace in the past,” French President Emmanuel Macron said in a speech in Strasbourg this week.
He added: “We are not at war with Russia. We are working in Europe to preserve Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity and to restore peace to our continent.
A diplomatic official close to Macron, who asked for anonymity in line with French government practice, described the developing US position as arming Ukraine to the extreme and maintaining sanctions against Russia indefinitely. This was a source of some frustration for the French.
France, he said, wants to push for negotiations because there is no other way to ensure Ukraine’s security and strategic security on the European continent.
The official said that, in the end, a relationship with Mr Putin was inevitable.
Mario Draghi, the Italian prime minister, appears intent on expressing a similar line after Tuesday’s meeting with President Biden in Washington.
“We need to support Ukraine,” Mr Draghi said. “But we also need to start talking about peace.” He added: “All countries must make an effort to sit around one table, even the United States.”
Mr Draghi continued: “We should not try to win, victory is not certain. For Ukraine, this means repelling the invasion, but for others? “
The goal of European powers – at least those not very close to Russia, such as Poland and the Baltic states – is that Ukraine’s defense must not mutate in the pursuit of Mr Putin’s crushing victory over Russia.
However, the United States does not seem to see much of a chance for diplomacy at the moment. Avril D. Haynes, director of U.S. national intelligence, told the Senate Armed Services Committee this week that Mr Putin was “preparing for a protracted conflict in Ukraine, during which he still intends to achieve goals outside Donbass.” .
Ms Haynes said US intelligence agencies did not believe Moscow could control the Donbass region, eastern Ukraine and the buffer zone Russia wants to establish – across Ukraine’s Black Sea coast all the way to Moldova’s Transnistrian region – in in the coming weeks. But she said the Russian leader was pursuing a longer-term goal.
“Putin is also likely to see Russia as more capable and willing to take on challenges than his opponents,” Haynes said. “And he probably relies on the determination of the United States and the EU to lose weight as food shortages, inflation and energy prices worsen.
Her assessment did not mention a possible ceasefire, the withdrawal of Russian troops, diplomacy or potential Ukrainian neutrality and security guarantees that the Kyiv government would need Western forces to do so.
These are topics of great interest to France, Germany, Italy and other European countries that are closer to war than the United States.
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