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A strong cold front will lead to the risk of strong to strong thunderstorms in much of the Northeast and the Mid-Atlantic Ocean on Monday. In addition to heavy hail and damaging rectilinear winds, several tornadoes are possible in the corridor of Interstate 95. It is even possible to form several rotating thunderstorms, known as supercells.
DC Zone Forecast: Strong Storm Threat Today, Incredible Tuesday, Weekend Hot Bang
The National Weather Service’s Storm Forecasting Center has prepared level 3 of 5 “increased risk” of severe weather to transmit this threat, with an orange zone on its forecast maps that includes a number of cities with big names. Philadelphia, Baltimore, Washington, Binghamton and Albany, New York, and Scranton, Pennsylvania, are all in the advanced category, with level 2 of 5 “light risk” closer to the coast in places like New York and Virginia Beach. Boston has a level 1 of 5 extreme risk, as storms are likely to weaken on the way to the cold Atlantic Ocean.
About 60 million people face a significantly increased threat of severe storms.
A severe thunderstorm observation was issued for the central part until 2 pm for Pennsylvania, where the storms were already preparing for Monday morning. Additional clocks for a strong thunderstorm or tornado are likely to be issued around noon. More targeted warnings of imminent radar threats from radar will be issued.
A slightly cooler, more refreshing air mass will be created behind the front of Tuesday before significant heat builds up to end the work week.
A low-pressure zone stretched from Hudson Bay to central Quebec on Monday morning, with a cold front continuing south. A secondary low-pressure zone had developed along the front near Cleveland.
The low one was located in the channel of the stream, known as the trough; as the jet flow moves rapidly overhead, a change in wind speed and / or altitude, known as wind shear, will be felt in columns of atmosphere in front of the front. This will exert a twisting or twisting force in all air pockets that grow tall enough to rise through multiple layers.
Before the front, warm, humid air flows north of the Gulf of Mexico and spreads over the east coast. This will contrast with the approach of cold air from above. As a result, scattered thunderstorms are expected, some of which will rotate due to the available wind shear in the afternoon.
Areas on Interstate Highways 95 and 84 from Virginia Tidewater north to central New York have the highest risk of severe weather on Monday. It is there that air masses will collide most dramatically without any influence from the cooler waters of the Atlantic Ocean.
The storms will begin to weaken as they cross the Tri-State region of western and southern New England, but there is a low risk of severe storms in the Connecticut Valley, Vermont and much of New Hampshire. The slight risk extends to North Carolina, with severe storms heading south to Raleigh.
The risk of severe storms over much of our region today is INCREASED (level 3 of 5). Destructive winds seem to be the main threat, but hail, several tornadoes and floods are also possible. Stay tuned for the rapidly changing weather from late this morning until the afternoon. pic.twitter.com/G4f1NkUO09
– NWS Baltimore-Washington (@NWS_BaltWash) May 16, 2022
Harmful winds: Gusts to damaging rectilinear winds between 40 and 60 mph are the main concern in thunderstorms, as they draw wind energy from the jet stream. Strong winds are most likely in eastern Pennsylvania and western New Jersey, where confidence is greatest in a continuous, unbroken line of squall exploding to the east. When thunderstorms enter the Garden State, strong winds can precede any lightning or thunder.
hello: Thanks to the cold air upwards, hailstorms ranging from a quarter to a half dollars are possible in the strongest thunderstorms, although it will be isolated to the most scattered. Hail is usually less common in linear storms, but if some supercells form in front of the baseline, heavy hail is more likely.
Isolated tornado: Most of the thunderstorms along the cold front will be QLCS or a quasilinear convective system by nature. This means that they will be in the form of clusters or linear segments with built-in curves of rotation. It is possible that one or two circulations are tight enough to ensure that a tornado warning is issued.
Several rotating supercells are expected in front of the main line of squalls. Simulations of high-resolution models were slightly more aggressive when simulating several. Each of them could pose a greater risk of triggering tornado warnings. This will be especially true near the south of the Mason-Dixon line in Maryland, DC and possibly Northern Virginia.
Rain and several thunderstorms were already moving through eastern Ohio and western Pennsylvania to begin the day. These precipitations will be intensified by the warming atmosphere and will increase their coverage and intensity throughout the late morning. Eventually, they will grow into the main line of storms, which are likely to become severe by 1 p.m. This squall should reach the New Jersey border around one o’clock in the afternoon.
Discrete cells, several of which may be supercells, will bloom for about 13 or 14 hours over Virginia and Maryland and move north and east.
The serious threat should decrease significantly after about 6 pm in the nation’s capital and 7 or 8 pm when storms clear the coastline through New York.
The decaying squall line will still march through New England, but in a weakened state.
There may be a second line of storms in the evening in the eastern Mid-Atlantic.
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