Ping pong balls? They have fallen. And the draft order? Well, it’s officially set after Tuesday’s wild night of the 38th annual draft lottery, which determined that the Orlando Magic – for the first time since 2004 – will be the first overall pick in the 2022 NBA Draft.
Orlando had a 14% chance of winning the lottery, with the highest odds on the Pistons and Rockets, before their big off-season win was announced by NBA Deputy Commissioner Mark Tatum in Chicago. This is the fourth time since the lottery that the franchise has the best choice. And understand this: two of the previous three No. 1 nominees have become members of the Hall of Fame – while Dwight Howard could potentially join them along the way. (No pressure, Chet Holmgren or Jaden Ivy or Jabari Smith or Paolo Banchero. But also: some pressure!)
As such, the Magic are the biggest and most obvious winners of the lottery night, although they are certainly not the only ones to have a good night. So did Thunder and Kings. Conversely, it was a tough night for the Pistons, whose 14% chance of winning the lottery brought them only a fifth choice. Trail Blazers, Pacers, Rockets and – as usual – New York Knickerbockers are probably also licking some wounds after the lottery.
Here’s a look at the winners and losers as the dust settles.
Winner: Jabari Smith may be the man of Magic
For months, this draft was considered strong at the top without a clear number 1, but four potential Tier 1 talents, which means that team training and the current structure of the list could ultimately dictate who will get off the board to start the draft. Now we have to find out which perspective Magic prefers to the band. This is a front office that wants length – they were part of the regime that Janice drafted – so Chet Holmgren would look great. But Jabari Smith seems to be the first favorite in a month to prefer Orlando, and I personally do not rule out Paolo Banchero here. It’s great luck to have the first hit at the top every year, but this year in particular feels great – especially for a franchise that has some really fun tracks with the 2021 lottery election. Jalen Sugs and Franz Wagner.
Winner: The kings are moving up
When it was announced that the Portland Trail Blazers are number 7 in the draft, it meant that the Sacramento Kings had moved into the top four of this year’s draft. They were in seventh place based on lottery odds, but rose three places – more than any other team this year – to win number 4. Newly acquired big man Damontas Sabonis, a representative of the Chicago team, could do nothing else. except to smile slyly after the stunning turn of events. He will have a chance to play with a potential maker of difference on the first day depending on the direction of Sacramento – assuming they keep the choice.
Loser: Jaden Ivy’s number one chance to choose
Gary Parish and I came to the conclusion this week that the number one choice, more than last year, will be decided based on which team wins the lottery. And one thing seems clear when the lottery fog settles: it’s probably not great for prospects. 1 by Jaden Ivy. Orlando chose a guard at 15 two years ago at Cole Anthony, then made it again with a top 10 pick last year at Jalen Suggs. It’s hard to imagine that they will do it again, especially with the promise they both made. I wouldn’t completely disqualify Ivy from participating, but the fall in the lottery order was better news for the big ones at the top of the draft than a potential lead guard at Ivy based solely on Orlando’s roster.
Winner: Thunder can speed up the reboot
At that time last year during the lottery, OKC had a chance to come up with two best choices and instead withdrew with only one choice: № 6. But that choice became a foundational piece in Josh Guide and a boy, oh, boy, did the recovery of this team hit an acceleration on Tuesday as they moved up to grab number 2.
This is a project created especially for OKC – a team that needs depth in the front field – to catch Jabari Smith, Paolo Banchero or Chet Holmgren, depending on who Orlando will take number 1. There is no bad choice. Whoever is selected must achieve immediate success as a likely starter in a young team full of potential. I’m all the way here because of Shay Gildes-Alexander, Josh Guide and one of Holmgren, Banchero or Smith, who will grow up together in the next half decade.
Losers: Portland, Pacers fall to the spot
Portland led the NBA in consecutive lost games to end the NBA 2021-22 season, but his brazen attempt at a tank from the late season was not rewarded as he fell from №6 in the №7 lottery, signaling a move of Sacramento in the first four. Indiana also had its own sting at night, dropping out of the line before the lottery from № 5 to after the lottery at № 6. With a 10.5% and 9.0% chance, respectively, of winning the best choice, both teams have good (but not great) draft selection where there is a significant drop in talent after number 4.
Winner: Pelicans living best of both worlds
New Orleans is the only NBA team that can claim a lottery pick in this year’s draft and secure a place in this year’s playoffs, with the Lakers coming after the exchange that sent Anthony Davis to LA.
Pelicans’ scout headquarters have made money in recent years in drafting Herbert Jones in the second round, grabbing Jose Alvarado as an undefeated free agent and taking talent from the generation in Zion – even if he was injured to start his career. This choice for them (number 8) could help them stay on the hunt for the playoffs and potentially rise to another level in the West, especially if Zion returns in full health next season.
Losers: Pistons prevent ignition, slip order
The Pistons were the anti-King on Tuesday as they fell more than any other team in the lottery. Based on the odds before the lottery, their 14% chance of winning the best choice was equal to the best, but instead they left with the fifth overall choice.
Womp womp.
There are great options at number 5 for Detroit, so I don’t want Motor City to worry too much about that. But the difference between choosing № 1 and № 5 – hell, even № 4 and № 5 – is quite significant in this project. Hopefully this front office can identify horses from this position to pair up by 2021 No. 1 choice of Cade Cunningham.
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