LONDON – Boris Johnson’s luck may finally run out – or at least weaken.
The British prime minister has endured six months of questions about the Partygate scandal, as reporters reported that he and other senior government figures have participated in a number of rallies that violate the rules for blocking COVID.
A report by senior government official Sue Gray on the affair, released last week, which revealed nasty details about drunkenness, failed to spark an immediate revolt against the prime minister among his own lawmakers, who could oust him. He apologized – again and again – and his presidency continued.
But an untimely parliamentary holiday, during which many lawmakers returned to their constituencies, hardened sentiment against him. While Johnson was once an electoral asset – a sympathetic scammer who helped increase his chances in the ballot box – the hostile reception of voters at home changed that calculation.
Former Attorney General Jeremy Wright issued a statement Monday calling for Johnson to resign – the 10th Tory MP to publicly call on him to leave following Gray’s report, bringing the total number made public to oppose their leader becomes 26. Most of these MPs say they have sent letters of no confidence to Johnson’s leadership, the mechanism that allows Tory MPs to oust their leader, with 54 needed to provoke a vote to remove him. .
“Things seem to be moving a little faster than I thought,” said a former minister. “I spent Saturday holding local events and I was struck by how prevalent the opinion seems that the prime minister should resign.
Another MP, who generally supports Johnson, said of the prospect of a no-confidence vote: “I have a feeling it’s about ‘when’, not ‘if’ and just getting closer.”
A third lawmaker – a former cabinet minister – who has not yet sent a letter said he would do so until parliament returns.
While support for the prime minister in some of the country’s most pro-Brexit positions seems to be waning, the Conservative coalition that brought Johnson to power in 2019 seems to be under more pressure than ever.
Politics is mathematics
MEPs whose seats are most at risk in the next election have expressed the strongest feeling that local anger can no longer be ignored, especially in areas with a remaining voice, where the Liberal Democrats have a strong presence. Political analyst Joe Armitage found that more than 20 lawmakers in the 39 most vulnerable countries had either called for Johnson’s resignation or publicly criticized him.
If the letter threshold is not reached by the time parliament returns next week, a government aide predicts it will be when two key by-elections are held on June 23rd.
The polls will test support for conservatives in two different areas – the northern city of Wakefield, which historically voted Labor until Johnson’s stunning victory in the 2019 election – and the traditional Tory constituency Tiverton and Honiton in the south-west of England.
The Tiverton by-elections were prompted by the departure of Neil Parish, who admitted to watching pornography in the House of Commons, and will be a target of the Liberal Democrats, who are key rivals in some of the Conservatives’ southern centers.
The aide said there were still MPs who were hesitant and had not yet sent letters. They predicted that defeats in both or one of the seats could be seen by so-called Red Wall MPs who won seats from Labor in the Johnson landslide, and more traditional conservatives are beginning to fear for their political future.
“If not now, after June 23, you will have MPs in the north who fear their seats after the Wakefield defeat and MPs in the south who are scared of the Tiverton campaign,” he said.
A former party aide said the best-case scenario was for the prime minister to face the vote before the by-elections. “All the music for the mood is that we will lose them. Wakefield won’t scare people, but Honiton will.
Boris’s team’s attention is focused on boosting support for a possible vote of confidence, the former official said. They added that the mood in number 10 was not good, with special advisers joking that it was time for another “reset”.
Similarly, as lawmakers’ position on their leader is influenced by sentiment in their own pockets, some are determined to do so and do not intend to join Johnson’s call for him to leave.
“Honestly, I don’t think the dial has moved too much,” one MP said in a strong vote to leave. “Those who could not visit dying relatives are still as crazy as hell, but many others who have broken the rules themselves are more ambivalent. We are very Brexitty here, so there are still a lot of Boris fans. ”
And even if the no-confidence vote is triggered, Johnson may squeak again. Conservatives have historically been known for their assassination tendencies, but John Major, Ian Duncan Smith, and Theresa May have survived similar moves against them (at least initially).
Another factor is the lack of an obvious successor to Johnson following Chancellor Rishi Sunak’s recent troubles, with some lawmakers questioning the wisdom of plunging the government into greater uncertainty amid the harsh economic climate.
A former 10th official said the start of summer vacation in late July was that the newest lawmakers could be challenged if they wanted Johnson’s successor to have a chance to establish himself before the next general election, which should be the most – late in 2024.
It’s not over yet, but the ice beneath Johnson is thinning again.
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