For several years, Luis Virla boarded a bus and then transferred to a train as part of his commute to Calgary. But like many, after the pandemic began, he hit the brakes on transit.
Even now, with pandemic restrictions almost gone and his worries about catching the virus easing, the 36-year-old is still not in transit through Calgary for his job as a technology startup. Instead, he spends most of his working days at home.
If he has to enter the office, he will either drive or catch a car.
“I took transit very shortly after the pandemic,” Virla said.
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As part of a family of four, including two young children, he realizes that he will eventually have to regain the habit of using the bus and train for his one-car household.
“I would definitely take public transport again, but I probably wouldn’t want to travel every day,” he said, preferring more flexibility.
Transit traffic across the country is still declining significantly from pre-pandemic levels, even as more people return to the office and gas prices reach record highs.
Travel in Calgary Transit is increasing, but it is still only about half of what it was before the pandemic. (Genevieve Norman / Radio Canada)
A long recovery is ahead
While vehicle use and air travel have almost completely recovered from the pandemic, transit use may still take several years to return to normal levels, observers said.
The latest statistics for passengers from Statistics Canada come from March 2022. This was the twelfth consecutive month of growth in public transport on an annual basis. However, the number of vehicles is only 52% of what was at the beginning of the pandemic in March 2020.
“The nature of work and work-related travel has changed significantly since the pandemic,” said Ractim Mitra, an associate professor at the University of Toronto’s School of Urban and Regional Planning.
More people walk and bike when they can, he said, and it can be difficult to break the driving habit. Some travelers are still aware of the space and are worried about COVID-19 after being told to distance themselves physically for much of the past two years, he added.
“My guess is that it will take us at least two, three, four years to get back to where we were if we ever come back,” he said.
The need to travel to work has decreased and may remain so for five years or more, said Ractim Mitra of the University of Toronto Metropolitan. (Craig Chivers / CBC)
The latest employment figures show that about 19% of employed Canadians still work from home, compared to 30% during much of the pandemic. About five percent have a hybrid agreement in which they divide their time between the office and work from home.
Calgary experienced the highest recovery in pedestrian traffic in the center on weekdays compared to pre-pandemic levels in North America, according to Avison Young, a real estate services company that uses aggregate data on cell phone location.
Yet the influx of workers to the city center is driven mainly by cars and trucks. The total number of vehicles in Calgary Transit has increased recently, reaching about 55% of pre-pandemic levels.
“Calgary is heavily influenced by people who love to drive. And our market in the center has many people who in the past have always wanted to manage the work. So it has made people feel more comfortable with how they get back to the office, ”said Todd Trondson, managing director of Avison Young in Calgary.
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There are various trends about returning to the office across the country, said Todd Trondson, managing director of Avison Young in Calgary.
Many city travelers notice that trains and buses can be spacious on Mondays and Fridays while full on other days of the week; many companies require workers to be in the office only from Tuesday to Thursday.
“There are some interesting things that are happening to passengers regarding this return to the office,” said Stephen Tauro, a spokesman for Calgary Transit. “We are in transition.”
Travel in the city is slowing and is expected to increase gradually over the summer, Tauro said, with an expected jump in September with the return of school and more people back to the office. However, he is not sure when the ride will fully recover.
Uneven recovery
Transit use varies across the country, with some Ontario cities such as Brampton and London reporting passengers recovering to more than 70 percent of pre-pandemic levels. In some small towns, however, passengers are down 80 percent from 2019 levels.
“I think a lot of people are coming back to work and that’s why it’s getting busier every day,” said Zane Mazhar before taking the bus as part of his trip from Mississauga to Ajax, Ont.
For most of last year, Tina Huang usually had empty seats next to her on the bus in Toronto, but “now it’s crowded.”
Fewer riders meant a sharp drop in transit revenues over the past few years, offset by billions of dollars in temporary government support. Many transit agencies are still trying to provide more routes and services to attract customers back, while trying to keep costs under control.
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Transit agencies need to prepare to increase passengers, says Josipa Petrunic, president of the Canadian Consortium for Research and Innovation in Urban Transport.
Some in the industry are optimistic about the rapid growth of passengers across the country, especially in big cities.
This is the time when transit agencies must plan to increase demand, said Josipa Petrunic, president of the Canadian Consortium for Research and Innovation in Urban Transport, a Toronto-based nonprofit group.
She expects to reach a turning point as more people continue to return to the office, combined with rising levels of immigration and population.
“Suddenly people will be really upset about the transit service, which is not fast, it is not convenient, it is not on time, it will not take them to where they need to go,” she said. “Meanwhile, the price of gasoline is above the roof and breaks the bank.
Overall, Petrunic expects it will take two years to cross the transit journey across the country to overcome the pandemic and return to 2019 levels.
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