1) The rebels fail. There is no vote of confidence. Johnson slips through the skin of his teeth
As the country celebrates the 1970s on the Queen’s throne, Boris Johnson is desperately calling around his lawmakers to try to ensure he can reach the milestone of just three years as prime minister.
Conservative MPs who want to leave before that believe they are very close to the magic number of 54 letters (to the chairman of the 1922 commission, Sir Graham Brady) needed to provoke a vote of confidence.
But if Johnson survives next week without crossing the threshold, and then avoids the disastrous double loss in two by-elections on June 23, in Tiverton, Honiton and Wakefield, he can survive without a vote of confidence at all. He would be safe, at least until the next crisis came.
Probability In balance, but on the unlikely side, as the mood in the party turns against him.
2) The rebels reach 54 letters this week or after the June 23 by-elections. A vote of confidence is called. Johnson wins and fights
Most Tory MPs believe a vote of confidence is now more likely than not. The big question is when does it happen. The vote could come this week. If that happens, then Johnson has a good chance of winning (by winning a majority of the 359 Tory MPs), in which case he could continue as prime minister.
However, if the vote takes place after the June 23 by-elections and the Tories are included in both, lawmakers say he will have a much harder time fighting, as his newfound electoral toxicity would be revealed. On the other hand, even in the face of despair at the double defeat, escapologist Johnson can still secure a majority of Tory MPs because his colleagues do not see a better leader in the proposal.
Another leadership challenge will not be resolved in one year. Johnson would be lame, though very weak.
Probability More likely than 1, but only.
3) Johnson loses the vote of confidence and drops out. Elections for party leadership begin
If Johnson is trusted before or after June 23 and after and fails to convince a majority of the 359 Tory MPs that he is the best person to lead the party in the next general election, he will drop out. A leadership race to find a new Tory leader and prime minister will begin in the summer.
Probability Depends on how bad the results of the Tory midterm elections are. If they are really bad, this is at least as likely as it is not.
Add Comment