Boris Johnson’s allies will focus on winning a no-confidence vote after admitting they now have little chance of stopping it.
This week, the prime minister will launch a resistance to health and housing policy in a last-ditch effort to win over his critics. He is expected to face a vote for his leadership as early as this week, with some lawmakers predicting that the threshold of 54 letters asking for one has already been exceeded.
With a remarkable change in tone, Business Secretary Paul Scully acknowledged Sunday night that a no-confidence vote “could happen”, but insisted Johnson “will face it”. “Whatever happens, we need to get back to government, to deal with the things that people want us to do every day.”
Hours earlier, Transport Secretary Grant Shaps said he did not think there would be a vote this week.
A No. 10 source said Johnson would demonstrate in the coming days that he was “getting to work” and acknowledged that this was also intended to show his determination not to be fatally weakened by a vote of confidence the prime minister expects to win with grief.
The source said that there is no prospect of Johnson resigning if he wins by a small margin, or proposing to go before the next election, as Theresa May did.
Johnson will not shy away from the potential humiliation of the upcoming by-elections, his aides said, and plans visits to Wakefield and Tiverton, which the Tories are expected to lose to Labor and the Liberal Democrats, respectively.
Some newer lawmakers are said to be worried about acting too soon and are considering pushing for a vote of confidence until after June 23, when by-elections are due to give the best chance of removing Johnson and give more time to potential candidates for leadership prepare.
Amid accusations by some Johnson supporters of complacency №10, the prime minister will focus this week on lagging behind the NHS, heralding progress the government has made in tackling waiting lists in a bid to use the money raised. from tax increases that unpopular in party parts.
Johnson will announce on Monday that one million inspections and tests have been carried out since the introduction of new diagnostic centers in the community, freeing up hospital capacity.
He explicitly linked it to the increase in national security, called the Health and Welfare Fee, much criticized by Tory MPs, and said funding would mean the NHS could “catch up with Covid, reduce waiting lists. and save lives. “
Later in Health Week, a major review of NHS governance by former Deputy Chief of Staff General Sir Gordon Messinger will offer a major review of NHS leadership structures to help failing trusts emulate those who present best.
Sajid Javid, the health minister, promised that the review would be the NHS’s most comprehensive leadership in 40 years and would “level out” regional differences in care.
This week, Johnson is also expected to announce the extension of the right to buy to millions of people who rent from housing associations, as well as the expansion of other housing ownership schemes. There are also preliminary plans for the formal introduction of the disputed legislation to repeal parts of the Northern Ireland Protocol.
The poll over the weekend showed that the Conservatives are on the verge of a humiliating defeat in Wakefield. Several deputies from the 2019 general elections told their colleagues that they would not send a letter before this result. “The members of the Red Wall who are hesitant are just watching Wakefield,” one MP said. “Only then will the penny fall, that he is not really popular at all.”
When a vote of confidence comes, Johnson’s allies say it will be crucial for him to show that he has the support of a majority of back judges.
“Theresa May has lost her back seat,” said one MP. “The prime minister must always receive the votes for salaries [those holding government posts] on the side. But what he has to do is take at least half of the rear bench, because then it gives a strong signal. “
A former minister, a supporter of Johnson, said that even among those who support him, he will have to regain his trust and show that he can win the next election with a big agenda.
“He will survive, but it will obviously weaken him. If he continues, then there is an awful lot of work to be done [the] suffered damage. Knowing Boris, he may be able to find his way.
But rebel lawmakers released a private briefing outlining a clear election picture of Johnson’s prospects. It says that Johnson’s boom during the anniversary “does not tell us anything that the data does not tell us” and that no polled social group says they trust the prime minister.
Don’t “over-interpret” Boris Johnson’s boos, says Grant Shaps – video
Another point says that “the whole goal of the government now seems to be to support Boris Johnson as prime minister” – citing his personal negative assessments and saying that “defending the indefensible” is not about defending the party, but one person.
One minister said residual loyalty to Johnson was already very low, even among his supporters. “Of course, things will catch up with him. He is a toast. Everyone is tired of the drama. The only question is whether he will be able to get through the election and stay in number 10 for a while before we get rid of him. We will not tolerate this nonsense forever. “
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Only 18 lawmakers have said publicly that they have sent a letter, but lawmakers who manage the numbers believe there are at least 70 who have now publicly expressed a lack of faith in the prime minister.
Most MPs seem resigned that the dam will break, but time is virtually impossible to guess given the lack of coordinated efforts. “Everything is for individual deputies. As far as I know, there are no groups for WhatsApp, “said an MP who is against Johnson.
Most MEPs are willing to bet that the challenge is inevitable. “I would say we were already there when Graham Brady was [the chair of the backbench 1922 Committee, who receives the letters] “He will return to his office on Monday, there will be a lot more,” he said. “I look forward to the vote on Wednesday.”
Voting is a secret personal vote in parliament. To survive in office, the Tory leader requires the support of at least half of his deputies, plus one, which means Johnson will need the support of at least 180 of his parliamentary party.
“Reaching 180 is a big request, but it is a secret ballot,” one MP said. “I think a third of the salary can go against him. If these are one third of them and two thirds of the backbanchers, you are suddenly in business.
“There will be a coordinated round of 10, but I think that if we reach 180 or not, the number of voters against will be much higher than the prime minister can imagine.
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