The decisive by-elections in the Conservative stronghold of Tiverton and Honiton are neck and neck, according to the Liberal Democrats, who are seeking a major political upheaval in Devon.
As voters prepare to go to the polls on Thursday in two by-elections, Sir Ed Davy suggested that his party “may be on the verge of a historic victory” in the south-west constituency – canceling a majority of 24,000 Tories.
The second ballot will take place in Wakefield, a place in the “red wall” that Sir Keir Starmer hopes to take back for Labor after falling into the hands of the Tories in the 2019 elections for the first time since the 1932 constituency. d.
Conservative MPs told The Independent over the weekend that Thursday’s double defeat in the by-elections would be a “catastrophe” for conflicted Boris Johnson, who survived a vote of no confidence two weeks ago.
Writing in The Independent, sociological expert Professor John Curtis suggested that Labor “should have little difficulty” in winning the by-elections in Wakefield, with a margin of just under 4 per cent.
Many Tory MPs expect a “big defeat” in private in the Yorkshire constituency after a poll by JL Partners earlier this month gave Labor candidate Simon Lightwood a 20-point lead over his Tory rival, Nadezhda Ahmed.
Sir John said the 20-point lead – a change of about 14 per cent – was “probably the result the party must achieve if it wants to assume it could pose a greater threat to the Conservatives than it has in recent times.” three joint elections. “
However, in Tiverton and Honiton, the poll expert warned that the success of the Liberal Democrats was “by no means guaranteed” and that the collapse of Labor support in the constituency “could be crucial to the outcome”.
He added: “The party is still not stronger in national polls than it was in the last general election – so it relies entirely on the momentum it can generate at the local level. Success will depend not only on his ability to garner the support of disgruntled conservatives, but also on the tactical support of those who would otherwise vote for Labor. “
Keira Starmer addressed supporters in Wakefield earlier this week
(Getty)
Former Conservative cabinet minister Kenneth Baker broke up with Mr Johnson at a pre-election event, saying he had no vision or strategy and was leading his party to defeat.
Lord Baker, Tory chairman under Margaret Thatcher, said the United Kingdom was crying out for a “healer” like Harold Macmillan in the 1950s – but that was not the prime minister’s approach.
“Boris is not dealing with treatment, but with confrontation, in which he is very good. But this is not the feeling and the mood in the country at the moment, “said the peer.
Mr Johnson is “mainly concerned with headlines the next day,” he said, adding: “I can’t see how it will get better if he survives for another two years.”
Vince Cable, a former Liberal Democrat cabinet minister, told the $ markets event that the prime minister could be tempted by “risky” general elections in the autumn.
“He is a gambler, he has gambled successfully in the past,” said Sir Vince, adding that there were rumors that preparations were under way.
Speaking before voters went to the polls, Sir Ed said voters in Tiverton and Honiton were “tired of Boris Johnson’s lies and neglect” and families were also facing rising energy bills and rising prices. food.
“This is a chance once in a generation to end years of neglect and make a better deal for Devon by supporting the Liberal Democrats and Richard Ford,” he insisted.
“We may be on the verge of a historic victory, but now it is a door and a door between the Liberal Democrats and the Conservatives, and every vote will count.”
But speaking in the municipalities on Wednesday about the prime minister’s questions, Mr Johnson seemed optimistic about his party’s prospects.
He told lawmakers that “absolutely no doubt” people in both constituencies would rather vote for a solid conservative government than for the Labor Party, their Liberal Democrat aides and supporters, the karmic chameleons of British politics. “
Lib Dem leader Ed Davy in the Tiverton and Honiton campaign
(PA)
The by-elections in Tiverton and Honiton were called earlier this year following the resignation of former Tory MP Neil Parish, who was at the center of a political storm after admitting to watching pornography in the House of Commons.
Voting also took place at Wakefield headquarters, where the Tories have a majority of 3,358, after former Conservative MP Imran Ahmad Khan was jailed after being sentenced in April for sexually assaulting a 15-year-old boy.
Add Comment