Boris Johnson faces a crucial verdict on Thursday as the Conservatives defend their seats in Wakefield and Tiverton and Honiton, with a double defeat likely to rekindle speculation about a new challenge from Tory MPs.
The by-elections were called after the relevant deputies resigned in disgrace. Imran Ahmad Khan retired to Wakefield after being convicted of sexually assaulting a teenager, while Neil Parish left in Tiverton and Honiton after watching pornography in the City Hall.
The seat in West Yorkshire was safe for Labor before Khan took over for the Conservatives in 2019, and Labor is the clear favorite to win on Thursday. The Devon constituency, in contrast, is seen as a door-to-door between conservatives and liberal democrats, although its various forms have been strongly tori for more than a century.
Parish won in 2019 with a majority of more than 24,000. If the Liberal Democrats win, it is considered the largest majority ever abolished in this way, although there are higher percentage fluctuations.
The loss of Tiverton and Honiton is likely to worry Conservative MPs in particular, given not only the size of the majority, but also the fact that it will be another Brexit-oriented rural Tory stronghold to be transferred to the Liberals in less than six months. In December, the Liberal Democrats seized North Shropshire, overturning a majority of the Tory of nearly 23,000 after former MP Owen Patterson resigned over a lobbying scandal.
Last June, the Liberal Democrats won another previously very safe Tory seat, Chesham and Amersham, the so-called blue-walled constituency in north-west London.
Lib Dem activists say Tiverton and Honiton are considered winners, but are worried that a number of disgruntled Conservative voters will stay at home instead of shifting their support.
While Labor and the Liberal Democrats are running for office in both places and have not made a pact, there is an implicit understanding that each party will concentrate resources on Wakefield and Tiverton and Honiton, respectively, to increase its chances of winning.
Prolonged pressure on the prime minister this month over parties violating the Downing Street blockade and concerns about a sense of rejection in the government led to a no-confidence vote in which 148 Tory MPs tried to oust Johnson and 211 backed him.
While ministers tried to present this as strong approval, Johnson did worse than Theresa May when she faced a similar vote, with 41% of his parliamentary party wanting a new leader.
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According to the rules of the Conservative Party, the victory gives Johnson a 12-month immunity against a challenge, but they can be changed if there is enough appetite for it among Tory MPs. This seems unlikely in the short term, but rebel lawmakers will see the double loss of by-elections as a significant failure, which could mean a resumption of efforts to oust Johnson in the fall.
Johnson sought to nullify his post as prime minister, focusing on issues that allowed him to please his main constituents, including fighting with lawyers to deport asylum seekers in Rwanda, changing human rights rules and trying to blame Labor. for railway strikes.
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