The tsunami could soon hit major cities on or near the Mediterranean, including Marseille, Alexandria and Istanbul, with almost a 100% chance of a wave reaching more than a meter in height over the next 30 years, according to UNESCO.
The risk of tsunamis in Mediterranean coastal communities is expected to increase with sea levels. While communities in the Pacific and Indian Oceans, where most tsunamis occur, were often aware of the dangers, they have been underestimated in other coastal regions, including the Mediterranean, UNESCO said.
Now the UN Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization says five high-risk communities in the Mediterranean will join 40 other tsunami-ready cities in 21 countries by next year. In addition to Marseille, Alexandria and Istanbul, they include Cannes and Chipiona, a city on the Spanish Atlantic coast near Cadiz.
The moment the tsunami erupted over the Miyako coast from the mouth of the Heigawa after the huge 9.1 magnitude earthquake in 2011 hit Japan. Photo: Mainichi Shimbun / Reuters
The Tsunami Ready program is part of a broader UNESCO effort launched ahead of next week’s UN Ocean Conference in Lisbon to ensure that all endangered communities know what to do in the event of a 2030 tsunami.
“The 2004 and 2011 tsunamis were a wake-up call,” said Bernardo Aliaga, a leading tsunami expert at UNESCO. “We have come a long way since 2004. Today we are safer. But there are gaps in readiness and we need to improve; we need to make sure that the warnings are understood by visitors and communities. “
The Indian Ocean tsunami on Boxing Day 2004, the deadliest in history, killed about 230,000 people in 14 countries, while the magnitude 9.1 earthquake and the 2011 tsunami hit nearly 40 meters (130 feet) height, killed 18,000 people in Japan.
Since the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami, the UNESCO-hosted Pacific Tsunami Warning Center has responded to 125 tsunami events, averaging seven a year.
a map showing the first cities ready for a tsunami in the Mediterranean region. UNESCO tsunami-ready communities need to develop a risk reduction plan, identify hazardous areas, display information and maps, and raise awareness
“The upstream part is in good condition,” Aliaga said. “Work has been done to set up 12 tsunami warning centers covering most of the ocean, including the Mediterranean.
The warning centers include five in the Mediterranean and the Northeast Atlantic, including Greece, Turkey, Italy, France and Portugal.
“The risk of a tsunami is underestimated in most areas, including the Mediterranean,” Aliaga said. “Events are not very common and the risk is not passed from one generation to the next.
“We need to deliver the message,” he added. “In the Mediterranean, there is no doubt about that: not if, but when.
One of the deadliest earthquakes in history struck Portugal on All Saints’ Day in 1755, generating a 6-meter tsunami in Lisbon and Cadiz. Up to 50,000 people died in the quake, but many unsuspecting others died in subsequent fires and tsunamis.
Engraving depicting the earthquake, fire and tsunami in Lisbon in 1755 Photo: Science History Images / Alamy
A tsunami only 1.5-2 meters high can lift cars off the ground, while smaller waves can lead to water walls moving at 40 miles per hour (65 km / h).
“The warning is not the whole story,” Aliaga said. “The second part is community readiness – how people behave and react. That must go. “
He cited the case of Tilly Smith, a 10-year-old British girl who brought 100 people, including her family, to safety in the 2004 tsunami. Her school geography teacher had told her to evacuate immediately when she saw the water reced.
Rising sea levels, which increase the tsunami’s impact on coastal communities, are “another reason to increase the pace of our work,” he said.
“The link is that rising sea levels are increasing the impact of the tsunami.”
Tourists began fleeing for land when the first of six tsunamis began moving toward a beach near Krabi, southern Thailand, in 2004. Photo: AFP / Getty
A 2018 tsunami model study in Macau, China, found that rising sea levels added to the risk of tsunamis as they could travel farther inland. The frequency of tsunami-induced floods has increased 1.2 to 2.4 times for sea level rise of 45 cm and 1.5 to 4.7 times for 90 cm increase, the study found.
Authorities in Alexandria, Istanbul, Marseille, Cannes and Chipiona are working on tsunami preparedness, including signs and evacuation procedures, as well as plans to warn tourists, Aliaga said.
“We want 100% of communities where there is a proven danger to be ready to respond by 2030,” he said. “They will have evacuation cards, have done exercises and will now have 24-hour warnings.
The signals were triggered about 10 minutes after the quake, he said, and could take the form of anything from speakers to WhatsApp messages.
“If it’s a local tsunami, you have a maximum of 20 minutes before the first wave hits. The second wave is bigger and comes 40 minutes after the first. You still have a chance to escape. “
Vladimir Ryabinin, executive secretary of the UNESCO Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission, said: “More than 40 communities in 21 countries are now safer, they have now implemented our tsunami preparedness program. If we want to meet this global challenge by 2030, we need to expand our agenda very quickly.
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