Of course, the state of the Democratic Party in the fall of 2018 is based on many factors, including the historical fact that the incumbent’s party – in this case Donald Trump’s Republicans – is generally doing poorly in the interim terms. But the poll also made it clear that in tough races, the Cavanaugh dispute and abortion moved the needle for Democrats.
Following the ruling by Supreme Court Dobbs on Friday, many are wondering if this time there will be a similar impact. While inflation and the economy are likely to remain the dominant issue on the domestic political agenda, polls suggest that Americans prefer abortion rights.
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New England has a number of contested contests this year, including running for governor in all six states. And abortion can be a factor in some of the major ones.
Here are four ways in which the abortion decision will affect New England politics during this interim election year and beyond.
1. Dobbs can save proposal to re-elect New Hampshire senator Maggie Hassan
The highest and most expensive competition in the region this year is likely to offer a choice between two candidates who differ significantly in terms of abortion.
The current president, the American senator from New Hampshire, a Democrat, Maggie Hassan, supports the rights of abortion and has made it one of his main political principles in his 20s in politics. The five leading Republicans running in the primary to stand up for her right this fall all reiterated during a debate Monday night that they are against the right to abortion.
Hassan won the seat in 2016 with just 1,019 votes, the country’s closest Senate election that year. Leaning in support for abortion rights was a winning path for Democrats and Republicans in the last election in New Hampshire. Studies for decades show that New Hampshire residents strongly support abortion rights, at least until the third trimester.
Republicans will probably want to talk only about the economy and inflation, but there may not be another Senate candidate in the country who would be better off taking advantage of Hassan’s Dobbs decision. In fact, it may be the problem that makes the difference for her.
2. The decision may be a key issue for Democrats in Rhode Island
Rhode Island is blessed with two very interesting competitions, a wide open race for governor and an open race for Congress.
Until now, the competitions have been guided by the personality, the ability of the campaigns to raise money and the selectivity of the candidates. Dobbs’ decision gave a sense of mission and a problem that candidates would have to solve convincingly for the base.
Abortion policy can be difficult in a place like Rhode Island. While the state has policies that are culturally liberal, the state rarely leads them. For example, until recently, the longtime spokesman for the House was a staunch opponent of abortion rights. Rhode Island was also the last state in New England to legalize same-sex marriage.
Abortion is already something that the five people running in the primary election for governor and the six running in the primary election for the Second Congressional District will have to deal with.
3. This could affect which New Englanders can run for president in 2024
If Joe Biden does not run for president, Dobbs’ decision could make the woman more likely to be nominated by the Democrats in 2024. Democrats, like Republicans, are facing ideological and generational change. Dobbs’ decision could focus the race more on restoring abortion rights, and women politicians could be more authentic about the democratic base on the issue.
This is good news for Massachusetts Senator Elizabeth Warren if she decides to run for president again. Warren was the best-ranked woman in the Democratic presidential primary in 2020. Following the expiration of a draft opinion on Dobbs’ decision and the actual decision last week, Warren was a public figure in the nationwide opposition.
On the contrary, this decision does not mean exactly the third presidential candidacy for Senator from Vermont Bernie Sanders. The need to tackle economic inequality is at the heart of Sanders’ policy, not social issues, although there is no daylight between his position and, say, Warren.
On the Republican side, if Donald Trump wants to run again, he can take a lap to win the Republican primary in 2024, confidently declaring that he is responsible for getting the majority on the court that Rowe canceled.
New Hampshire Gov. Chris Sununun is likely to be ousted. Even on Tuesday morning in an interview with Punchbowl News, Sununun did not close the door on his candidacy for president in 2024. But Sununun is in favor of the election and this may be a position that is simply unpleasant for a base that may crave national a ban on abortion that will be passed by a Republican president.
4. Susan Collins is in a super awkward position in Maine
In 2020, Collins became the first woman in US history to win a fifth term in the US Senate. It was a race that many thought she could not win.
Although she has had many difficult voices in her career, her vote to confirm Cavanaugh in court in 2018 sparked a shooting storm. When she was re-elected in 2020, this vote made it the toughest re-election campaign ever.
Then her answer was simple: Cavanaugh had assured her that he would not overthrow Rowe. Well, last week he went on to vote for Rowe’s cancellation, leaving Collins to say she was “misled.”
Who knows where all this is going? She would not be re-elected until 2026, when she would be 74 years old. It may be time to retire, but it is still relatively young for the Senate. By then, Cavanaugh might have faded as a problem. Or maybe Rowe’s decision will still resonate in New England.
You can contact James Pindell at james.pindell@globe.com. Follow him on Twitter @jamespindell and Instagram @jameswpindell.
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