As France enters the last week of its presidential election campaign, the stakes cannot be higher. If Emmanuel Macron wins, he will be the first French president to secure re-election since Jacques Chirac in 2002. With a new term, Macron will be in a strong position to move forward with his ambitious plans for France and the EU.
But if Marine Le Pen wins, it will be a political earthquake that rivals Brexit and the election of Donald Trump as US president in 2016. The victory of the ardent nationalist and Eurosceptic would call into question the future of the EU. Le Pen’s immigration and Islam program will also threaten social stability in France.
Twenty years ago, Jean-Marie Le Pen, the founder of the far-right National Front, received less than 18 percent of the vote in the last round of the presidential election. A generation later, his daughter Marin is next to the presidency – polls suggest she will receive the support of at least 45 percent of voters. The televised debate between Macron and Le Pen on Wednesday will be crucial, but it could change the dynamics of the race.
The fact that Le Pen is doing so well is a testament to both the radicalization of the French electorate and its successful attempts to soften its image. In the first round of voting on April 10, about 57% of French voters chose candidates from either the far right or the far left.
These days, Le Pen is dismissing the “far right” label. Like Macron, she insists she is neither left nor right. In her campaign, she is keenly focused on the economy and the cost of living – presenting herself as a candidate for the oppressed French workers and Macron as a defender of the capital’s elite who does not touch.
Le Pen also softened his personal and political style. She smiles a lot, speaks calmly and has mastered the art of sounding sensible.
In reality, however, Le Pen’s domestic and international agendas remain radical, dangerous and internally inconsistent. Macron’s task is to uncover these shortcomings next crucial week.
In particular, the French president should be ruthless in linking his opponent with Vladimir Putin. Le Pen insists she has met with the Russian president only once and that her party was forced to borrow money from a Russian bank in 2014 because it was avoided by French financial institutions. In fact, there are long-standing ideological ties between Le Pen and Putin. As early as 2017, she cited the Russian president as an example of her approach to politics.
Le Pen’s domestic and international policies are also full of controversy. At home, it offers a classic populist mix of higher spending, lower taxes and early retirement – combined with protectionism and restrictions on foreign labor. This combination of policies will harm the workers themselves, whom he claims he supports.
A key element in softening Le Pen’s image has been the adoption of a softer, more resonant approach to the EU. These days, she is no longer a supporter of Frexit. But her insistence that French law should take precedence over EU law would mean Frexit by another name. The policies of national preferences for French workers and industry, if passed, are also clearly incompatible with being part of the EU’s single market. Le Pen refuses to acknowledge the logical consequences of her political promises, so Macron must put pressure on her.
The French president left late to launch a serious campaign. He must use this last, decisive week for good effect.
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