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Conditions ranging from critical to extreme forest fires are on the verge of invading the southwestern United States and parts of Colorado, which could be a long, multi-day and memorable outbreak of forest fires and / or forest fire conditions. Warm to local scorching temperatures, dry air and strong mountain gusts will overlap for several days, part of a summer weather pattern that comes with no chance of significant rainfall.
The Albuquerque National Weather Service called it a “dangerous, long-lasting and potentially historic critical fire event.” The conditions in Tinderbox, which favor the rapid spread of fires, are expected to be maintained next week. Sunday can present the most extreme combination of strong winds and hot, dry air.
“New Mexico is facing 100 consecutive hours of the worst possible set of fires, with high temperatures and extreme winds,” tweeted Governor Michel Lujan Grisham (D) on Friday. “It is extremely important to follow the evacuation orders. Your life and safety are top priorities. ”
She added: “I ask every new Mexican to do everything possible to prevent any additional fire, anything that could cause a spark. No open flames, no campfires, no open grills, no welding, no butts – please work with us to prevent fires and save resources. ”
Currently, a number of ongoing fires will continue to burn and will worsen from the weather this weekend. New ignitions are also expected, which could quickly spiral out of control.
Earlier this week, the Calf Canyon fire became the second largest in New Mexico. At the end of April, it merged with the fire on Hermit Peak just to the east, a prescribed burn, over which the crews lost control in strong winds. The cause of the fire in Calf Canyon is being investigated.
Located in the higher ground east of Santa Fe in the counties of Mora and San Miguel, the Calf Canyon fire has already burned 170,665 acres and is 21 percent under control. More than 1,400 workers from three states are actively involved in fighting the fire, which destroyed at least 276 structures and required approximately 4,000 evacuations.
Andy Lyon, a public information officer with the Southwest Incident Management Team, told The Washington Post that 15,000 homes could be threatened over the weekend around the perimeter of the fire.
Big fires are raging in New Mexico and the worst is yet to come
The Calf Canyon fire is one of six major fires in New Mexico. The fires caused President Biden to declare a major disaster in parts of the state on Wednesday so that federal aid could reach the affected residents.
Red flag warnings for dangerous weather conditions cover the whole of New Mexico, as well as western Texas, eastern and northern Arizona, southern Nevada, the Inner Empire and the deserts of California and much of southern and eastern Colorado.
Albuquerque Meteorological Service urges residents to be ready for evacuation, telling them to “remember [their] ps ”- people, pets, recipes, photos, documents, personal computer and phone.
“But if you don’t have enough time, just take your family and leave,” it said.
In addition to inflating the flames, strong winds are also expected to move dust-blowing areas, limiting visibility. And dust and smoke will degrade air quality.
The stormy weather picture is the result of a great immersion of the jet stream – the river of winds at high altitude – in the western United States. This decline will remain fixed at least until the middle of next week, directing a torrent of winds from the west and southwest over the southwestern and southern rocky mountains.
The most intense winds over the weekend will rush over the high terrain of Colorado, where gusts of up to 70 mph are possible. Elsewhere in the mountains, winds of 40 to 55 miles per hour are likely to be widespread by Monday, with some weakening every night but returning in full force during the day.
Meanwhile, the low pressure will be blown out of Colorado’s front chain on Sunday, pulling dry air east. This will strengthen the “dry line” in West Texas and Oklahoma. Tropical humidity will prevail in the east, but desert air will spread to the west.
The combination of unusually high temperatures rising to 95 to 100 degrees in western Texas and eastern New Mexico and “descending” air rushing down the Rocky Mountains will contribute to relative humidity percentages in single digits. Computer models predict that humidity could drop to just 4 percent in the Permian Basin in Texas.
This is added to level 4 of the 4 already existing “exclusive” droughts, whose eye is focused on eastern New Mexico and parts of Texas Panhandle and Hill Country.
We can’t overestimate it enough !!! The next few days will be windy and extremely dry with temperatures above normal and unstable conditions. This protracted critical fire event will require all new Mexicans to be diligent and cautious! #NMwx #NMfire #OneLessSpark pic.twitter.com/rhVxpVPlMt
– NWS Albuquerque (@NWSAlbuquerque) May 6, 2022
Conditions may improve over the coming week, but a look at the expanded model shows a small influx of moisture in the water-hungry region. “More critical fire conditions are expected on Tuesday for the rest of the week, although coverage is likely to be less overall,” the Albuquerque Weather Service said.
The fires in New Mexico have burned more than 270,000 acres so far this year, the second most in a decade, and the fire season is just entering its peak period. Unusually active season is associated with the constancy of strong winds, drought and higher than normal temperatures. Several of the flames are burning in areas where the winter snow cover was well below normal.
In the United States, forest fire activity is 78 percent above the 10-year average this year, according to a White House newsletter.
Research has linked rising temperatures and increasing droughts from man-made climate change to longer and more severe fire seasons. Hot and dry conditions quickly dry out the vegetation, making the earth’s surface more flammable. This year’s conditions could portend a fiery future not only for New Mexico but for much of the Southwest.
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