WASHINGTON – Terrified by the strength of Ukrainian resistance, Russia is seeking a major offensive under more favorable conditions after attempts to take Kyiv and other major cities failed. The new offensive will focus on the Donbass region, a disputed section of eastern Ukraine that includes two Moscow-controlled breakaway regions.
“They want to achieve some physical, tangible goals in Donbass over the next few weeks,” a senior Pentagon official told reporters during a briefing Thursday.
But given current challenges, Russian President Vladimir Putin is unlikely to strike the knockout blow he is desperately seeking, analysts say. All of Russia’s territorial gains are expected to be significantly less significant than Putin imagined when the invasion of his much smaller and less powerful neighbor began in late February.
A Ukrainian soldier is on guard in Donbass. (Fadel Senna / AFP via Getty Images)
Moreover, these gains may come at the expense of the continuing deterioration of preparedness, morale and other factors already working against Russia.
“The final border between Ukraine and Russian forces” may not be as different as it is now, “said Phillips P. O’Brien, a military strategy and history scholar at St Andrews University in the United Kingdom. of conflict only in terms of territorial gains. “What matters is the state of the armed forces, not where they are on the map.”
The initial invasion was envisioned by Russia’s top general, Valery Gerasimov, as a swift, ruthless and multi-faceted attack designed to stun Ukrainians. Kyiv had to be demolished within days, and the whole “special operation” – as the Russians insist they call what is now a full-scale war – had to be relatively painless militarily, like the previous invasion of Ukraine in 2014.
Lively Ukrainian resistance, backed by Western anti-aircraft systems and other materials, overturned Gerasimov’s plan, forcing the Russians to retreat. “They didn’t plan this to be a long, long battle,” Benjamin H. Friedman, political director at Defense Priorities, a think tank in Washington, told Yahoo News in an interview. “Now they’ve changed their minds.”
The story continues
According to the Pentagon, the Kremlin has amassed 65 battalion tactical groups or BTGs on Ukraine’s eastern border. The question is whether this force will be enough to consolidate and expand Russia’s profits – or whether the same mistakes that plagued the first stage of the war are endemic to the Russian military as a whole, which means that the second stage will not be any different.
Satellite image shows the deployment of troops, tents and vehicles west of Soloti, Russia, near the border with Ukraine. (Satellite image © 2022 Maxar Technologies)
To lead the new offensive, Putin appointed General Alexander Dvornikov, who was sent to Syria in 2015 in an effort by Russia (ultimately successful) to support dictator Bashar al-Assad. He had previously fought in Chechnya in what turned into a lengthy multi-year campaign that some fears could be reproduced in Ukraine.
Dvornikov’s appointment could be taken as a sign that Putin “seems ready to embrace the long-standing principles of war: simplicity, unity of effort and focused logistics,” the retired US brigadier said. General Mark Kimith wrote in the Wall Street Journal earlier this week.
Kimit added that if the precedent materializes, Dvornikov’s offensive is expected to begin in the Donbass soon, involving a predictable combination of “large armored formations and huge concentrations of artillery, missiles and missiles.”
However, a change in military leadership may be less a sign of fresh thinking than an acknowledgment that the Kremlin simply needs to do something to show the world – and ordinary Russians – that it is doing everything possible to save an invasion it considers . it would be over by the spring thaw.
“You’re not firing the winning generals,” said military historian O’Brien. Dvornikov will have under his command the same poorly trained army that has already suffered thousands of deaths, according to NATO estimates.
Putin almost certainly imagined a triumphal parade on May 9, when Russia celebrates its victory in World War II. Now he must prevent a complete defeat, a scenario that would have been unthinkable just two months ago. The sinking of the flagship Moscow earlier this week reminded us of how incredibly effective the Ukrainian resistance has proved.
(FILES) This file, taken on August 29, 2013, shows the flagship missile cruiser of the Russian Black Sea Fleet “Moscow” entering the Sevastopol Bay. Russia’s warship Moscow was hit by two Ukrainian missiles before sinking in the Black Sea, a senior Pentagon official said on Friday, calling it a “big blow” to Moscow. / AFP / Vasily BATANOV
“This part of the war will probably be decisive,” Friedman said. “Victory-victory does not seem likely,” the Kremlin told Yahoo News, predicting a deep-seated conflict with several meaningful attempts at a peace agreement in the near future.
The Russian military underwent a much-publicized reorganization in 2008, but the unprepared units fighting in Ukraine are more reminiscent of the awkward and bloody first campaign in Chechnya – launched in 1994 by Putin’s predecessor Boris Yeltsin – than of the kind of technical precise, effective efforts that the western army can make.
However, a campaign focused on eastern Ukraine offers Russia some advantages, including open terrain and shorter supply lines. “The Russians will want to take the Ukrainians out into the open, into the steppes,” Friedman said. “It’s less urban. It is assumed that at least they will be able to fight more outside the cities. “
But even the newly discovered topographic advantages can be reversed for the Russians if, as some believe, the spring rains turn unpaved roads into mud, making it difficult to maneuver tanks and armored vehicles. Even before the brutal Russian winter, German troops faced this fate in the autumn of 1941 as they headed for Moscow and Leningrad (now St. Petersburg).
“Weather will certainly be a factor in the war, as it always is,” the defense official told reporters Thursday, “and the fact that the land is softer will make it harder for them to do anything outside.” paved highways’, especially when it comes to supply logistics.
And, the official said, poor visibility could prevent Russia from establishing air superiority over Ukraine, a critical factor in any major offensive. “It’s coming and going,” O’Brien said of Russia’s ongoing air campaign. “Come in, drop your bomb, go.”
The lack of air support for ground forces, combined with the relatively small size of the forces now preparing for the eastern campaign (the initial incursion involved 130 battalions, twice as many as Dvornikov will have at his disposal), makes him skeptical on Russia’s prospects.
Ukrainian soldiers in Donbass last week. (Fadel Senna / AFP via Getty Images)
Ukrainians agree. They called on the West to help them strike a shocking blow. “Ukraine can win the next phase of this war with timely and appropriate Western support,” Natalia Bugayova wrote in a briefing at the Institute for War Studies, where she is a collaborator.
“The outcome of this phase is far from certain,” Bugayova added.
Add Comment