Southeast Asian leaders will head to Washington this week for a summit meeting with US President Joe Biden, who is seen here virtually participating in the previous ASEAN White House summit in Washington in October 2021.
Nicholas Cam Afp | Getty Images
In the midst of the war in Ukraine, which is Washington’s top foreign policy priority, President Joe Biden is hosting Southeast Asian leaders in Washington, demonstrating US commitment to the region in which they are fighting for dominance with China.
Some critical issues – such as the economic recovery after Covid, climate change and the Myanmar coup – will be on the table for the two-day meeting, which begins on Thursday. It will be attended by leaders of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), a bloc of 10 countries that together make up the world’s seventh largest economy.
Security issues are likely to be discussed at the summit, Ong Keng Yong, a former ASEAN secretary general, told CNBC.
“Inevitably, issues related to geopolitics and international security will be raised and discussed, but I do not expect any dramatic moves in this regard,” Ong said, adding: “The United States needs to be more present in Southeast Asia.”
The White House said the summit “will demonstrate the United States’ enduring commitment to ASEAN, … and will mark the 45th anniversary of US-ASEAN relations.”
The United States often emphasizes the “centrality of ASEAN” in its Indo-Pacific strategy to limit China. This emphasis provides the region – populated by nations that do not want to openly choose between the United States and China – with some bargaining power.
ASEAN would like to see an economic framework with some concessions and a clearer regional security strategy, especially with the participation of the South China Sea.
Joshua Kurlantsik
External Relations Council
Ong, who is also Singapore’s ambassador, said Asia has offered enough to keep the United States engaged despite its previous involvement in the war in Ukraine. “Since the end of World War II, it is clear that Europe ranks first in the United States before any other region in the world,” he said.
“However, the people of ASEAN believe that American resilience and vitality will find the Asian side of the Pacific something worthwhile to engage in and ensure the prosperity of the United States in the future.
“ASEAN would like to see an economic framework with some concessions and a clearer regional security strategy, especially with the participation of the South China Sea,” Joshua Kurlantsik, a senior fellow for Southeast Asia at the Council on Foreign Relations, told CNBC.
Biden’s Indo-Pacific Strategy, published in February, says Washington will explore Quad’s ability to work with Southeast Asian nations. But ASEAN would like to see more US support for bloc-led initiatives.
Quad, officially known as the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue, consists of the United States, Australia, Japan and India in a strategic partnership aimed at countering China’s impending military presence in the Indo-Pacific region.
Separately, Aukus consists of Australia, the United Kingdom and the United States, the Indo-Pacific Security Alliance, which launched last September.
“ASEAN would probably like to see more US support for its ASEAN-led mechanisms, as opposed to US-led ministerial groups such as Quad and Aukus,” said Joan Lin, a lead researcher at the ASEAN Research Center at ISEAS-Youssef Ishak. Institute in Singapore.
“US support for ASEAN’s prospects in the Indo-Pacific region will be important,” Lynn added, referring to a document adopted in 2019, where ASEAN outlined its geostrategic concept for the Indo-Pacific region after former President Donald Trump publishes its vision for a free and inclusive Indo-Pacific region.
People in many parts of Southeast Asia see US interests primarily as a rivalry between American liberal democracy and Asian conservatism, said Ong, a former ASEAN secretary general.
“Of course, we have different forms of autocratic rule in different parts of ASEAN. However, there are many areas where mutually rewarding joint initiatives can be taken to deepen ties on a broader scale, “Ong said.
Indo-Pacific Economic Framework
It is possible that the United States will discuss the Indo-Pacific economic framework, which was announced by Biden at last year’s summit in East Asia. This may include new approaches to trade, supply chain supply and clean energy.
“While the United States is still refining the content of the framework, it is unlikely to impress ASEAN,” said Lin from the ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute. “Lack of market access and high standards of labor and environment may not go well with several ASEAN countries.
There may be “some progress on the Indo-Pacific economic framework, but there is unlikely to be a binding commitment from the United States,” Kurlancik of the CFR said, adding that expectations from the summit would be “quite low” – given that so many others are happening in the world.
Two ASEAN countries will not be represented at the Biden meeting: outgoing Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte and Myanmar’s junta leader Min Aung Hlaing, who took power from Aung San Suu Kyi’s elected government in a February 2021 coup.
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