Boris Johnson’s claim that the lack of knowledge about the asymptomatic transmission of Covid-19 puts nursing homes at risk was further undermined after it turned out that he was openly discussing the potential scale of asymptomatic transmission.
The prime minister has already been accused of misleading parliament with the allegation. He did so last week after the Supreme Court ruled that the government had acted illegally by ordering patients to be discharged to care homes without testing in the spring of 2020. Johnson told the House of Commons: “What we didn’t know about -especially, it was that Covid could be transmitted asymptomatically. “
However, the prime minister commented on documents addressing the issue at a press conference for Covid on March 25 – a few weeks before the rules were changed to ensure that all patients were tested before being admitted to a care home.
At the press conference, he asked Chief Scientific Adviser Patrick Valance about reports that many people may have the disease without symptoms. “Patrick, on the number of people who have asymptomatic disease, there was a study I saw, quoted by some Oxford researchers, which says up to 50% may have had it asymptomatically,” he said. How do you assess this at this stage?
Valance said studies in China and Italy have shown asymptomatic cases, but the role of these cases at the population level is unknown. He also said that the new antibody tests “will be able to find out how many people have had the disease asymptomatically and this will be important for us to understand what to do next.” He added: “These tests are extremely important. We need more of them. “
Martin Green, CEO of Care England. Photo: Holly Adams / Getty Images
Nursing homes emerged as a major casualty in the first wave of Covid. In mid-March 2020, NHS England told hospitals to “urgently discharge” patients to help free up 15,000 beds. Mandatory examinations for discharged patients were not introduced until 15 April. About 25,000 patients were discharged to nursing homes in the interim.
Last week’s Supreme Court ruling listed several cases in early 2020 when the risk of asymptomatic transmission was raised by scientists and ministers. The government’s own lawyers’ document states that “there can be no doubt that [the government] “A government spokesman responded to the findings, saying the court acknowledged that it was a very difficult decision at the start of the pandemic, and evidence of asymptomatic transmission is uncertain.”
Martin Green, CEO of Care England, said that even if there was no evidence of asymptomatic transmission, ministers should have made the mistake of caution, as the risks were known. “The Sage government’s advisory committee identified the problem of asymptomatic transmission in early 2020, but if there were any doubts about transmission pathway problems, this should have led to a clear directive that no one should be moved between any healthcare facilities. and medical facilities without a Covid test. “
Johnson also admitted at a press conference on March 18 the problems caused by the virus. “The point of this disease is that it is an invisible enemy and we don’t know who betrayed it, but the great thing about doing a test to see if you had it or not is that suddenly a green light flashes over your head. ”
If he didn’t understand that this meant that people without obvious symptoms might be among those who transmitted the virus, other people were available to point it out. Lord Bethel, then a junior health minister, made this statement during a Lords’ debate on 9 March 2020 on the first government regulations for Covid, which created the power to keep people in isolation if they pose a risk. He told members: “A large number of people are infected and contagious, but completely asymptomatic and never approach a test kit.
At this point, the public was told that the incubation period for Covid could last up to 14 days, and most people did not develop symptoms until about three to five days later. At this stage, there was no evidence of transmission of Covid – suggestive tips for washing hands, not wearing masks – but the high level of infectivity and the possibility of asymptomatic transmission have been actively discussed by scientists and commentators.
The Imperial College report, which was so influential in the government’s initial response to the virus – and which led to widespread antipathy among skeptics of blocking the lead author, Professor Neil Ferguson – said they accepted that “symptomatic individuals are 50% more likely.” -infectious by asymptomatic persons “.
A government spokesman said it was “clear about the understanding of the virus, which changes over time and that it changes significantly day by day, especially at the beginning of the pandemic”. They said the “vast majority” of last week’s court ruling was in favor of the government and that the evidence of asymptomatic transmission was “extremely uncertain”.
They added: “Our thoughts are with all those who lost loved ones during the pandemic. During the pandemic, our goal was to protect society from the threat to life and health posed by Covid-19, and we specifically sought to protect the occupants of nursing homes based on the best information available so far. “
Add Comment