Time is everything. Suspicions that Boris Johnson had violated blocking rules nearly toppled him in January. Yet now the prime minister seems safe, even when the suspicion becomes a reality with the issuance of a fixed penalty notice by the police. Johnson’s strong response to the international crisis provoked by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine seems to have saved him so far, although with more fines likely to come and Sue Gray’s final report looming, his position remains dangerous.
Party blocking scandals have turned many voters against Johnson. His average net approval rating among seven national sociologists fell from -9 last September to -40 in January. At the bottom, the prime minister’s ratings were as bad as those of Margaret Thatcher during the public procurement tax crisis or Gordon Brown in the midst of the financial crisis. Johnson was less popular with voters in January than Jeremy Corbyn during the 2019 election campaign. The Johnson brand, as a politician with a uniquely popular appeal, seemed completely shot.
The prime minister recovered somewhat after his low ebb, with an average net approval of the latest -25, which is 15 points more than in January. This rebound should not be overestimated. Despite a relatively favorable news agenda, Johnson’s ratings today remain at or below the worst figures he recorded before the party. The prime minister is less popular now than he was, for example, during the height of the Covid blockade crisis in the winter of 2020. Last summer’s vaccination honeymoon now seems a distant memory.
Johnson is seen as weaker, less competent, less reliable and less likeable, who is at any moment before the party. Police fines and further revelations will reinforce this change. The damage caused by wine refrigerators and blocking discos cannot be reversed.
Things can get worse. Public hostility to the prime minister may permeate views on his party and its policies. As Labor found out in 2019, popular politicians lose their luster when they associate with an unpopular frontman. Do not believe the motives; the ability to deliver is in question. Good ideas cannot save bad leaders.
Nor is the political agenda likely to offer much relief to the government, as spending on the crisis abroad is starting to bite at home through rising food and energy prices, rising taxes and falling living standards. Calls for collective self-sacrifice will sound hollow, coming from politicians seen by the public as playing by their own rules. The Conservatives’ advantage as economic managers, which has long been one of their electoral assets, has been erased, and worse news is yet to come.
Paradoxically, the difficult economic situation has helped strengthen Johnson’s position by hastening the collapse of his main rival, Chancellor Rishi Sunak. Sunak’s response to the pandemic was widely praised, and in the midst of the party, a popular chancellor, untainted by scandals, seemed to many congested people an attractive alternative. Sunak is now burdened by political mistakes, his own scandals and his own fine for violating blocking rules. Now he is even less popular than his boss.
Johnson’s personal security may depend on his advantages over domestic rivals, but Labor’s competition with Keir Starmer will determine the fate of his government. Although Starmer’s ratings are not stellar, he is far ahead of the much-reduced prime minister. If he manages to maintain this advantage, then Labor will move on to the next election with a better-rated leader for the first time since the first years of Tony Blair’s presidency.
Yet Labor is the one who provides the struggling government with some source of hope. Voters remain cool with Starmer, and despite all of Johnson’s problems, he still often fights with the Labor leader for equality over who will be the best prime minister.
Public skepticism about the opposition’s ability to govern remains widespread. Among all the encouraging signs of labor lies an alarming precedent. In 1986, a Labor leader who worked hard to restore his party’s credibility had a big lead over a scandal-ridden, struggling economic issue. A year later, Neil Kinnock faded and Margaret Thatcher bounced back to a third election victory. Boris Johnson may have dropped out, but he hasn’t come out yet.
Robert Ford is a professor of political science at the University of Manchester and the author of the 2019 British General Elections.
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