Today, the Liberal Democrats rubbed their hands with joy at the prospect of by-elections in Neil Parish’s seat in Tiverton and Honiton, which strategists say could offer a repeat of last year’s stunning victory in North Shropshire.
The East Devon constituency has been conservative since its inception in 1997, and returned Mr. Parish to the last election with an overwhelming majority of more than 24,000, making him on paper one of Boris Johnson’s safest places in the country.
But a majority of 23,000 Tories in North Shropshire were overturned in December in a sensational 37 percent attack on the Liberal Democrats, following the disgrace of longtime lawmaker Owen Patterson, who resigned after a report found him guilty of paid advocacy on behalf of two private companies.
And Lib Dem insiders said today that the party will “go for it” in Tiverton and Honiton, in an attempt to replicate the historic disruption in traditional Tory rural centers, which they describe as the Blue Wall.
No date has yet been set for the by-elections sparked by Mr Parish’s resignation, in June or July. It will come hotly after another awkward by-election for Mr Johnson in Wakefield, where Labor is bidding to regain a seat on the Red Wall following the conviction of Tory MP Imran Ahmad Khan for sexual assault on a teenager.
As in North Shropshire, Labor won second place in Tiverton and Honiton in the 2019 election, comfortably ahead of Ed Davey’s party in third place.
But a Lib Dem source said the party hoped its tradition of being a major rival to the Tories in the West would help it jump into the controversy over Mr Parish’s successor.
Liberal Democrat candidates regularly took second place in the constituency until 2015, failing to take the seat with just 1,653 votes in 1997.
In North Shropshire, the Liberal Democrats have been campaigning hard on the poor availability of ambulances in the constituency, and their hopes of success in Tiverton and Honiton may be based on identifying a local problem with similar resonance.
A party source said: “We are currently fully focused on local elections. But the Liberal Democrats have already shown that we can take the countryside away from the Conservatives.
“People in the West have a strong tradition of voting for the Liberal Democrats as the main opposition to the Conservatives.
“As we saw in North Shropshire, there is a real reaction against Boris Johnson from rural communities who are tired of taking things for granted.
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