- Hours and tropical storm warnings have been issued for parts of south and central Florida.
- This is before the expected formation of a tropical depression or storm in the Persian Gulf.
- The system will cause torrential rains in parts of Florida, Cuba and the Bahamas.
- The cutting of wind and dry air will limit the intensity of this system, which will be called Alex if it turns into a tropical storm.
Hours and warnings of tropical storms have been posted in parts of Florida ahead of the likely tropical depression or storm in the Persian Gulf, which will bring heavy rains and gusts of wind to these areas over the weekend.
A low-pressure area located near the Yucatan Peninsula in Mexico and the northwestern Caribbean is currently producing piles of rain and thunderstorms.
The National Hurricane Center (NHC) called the system “Potential Tropical Cyclone 1”, a procedure that allows the NHC to issue advice, clocks and warnings on a system that has not yet been developed but poses a threat of tropical winds. on the ground within 48 hours.
Due to models showing slightly faster traffic across the Gulf of Mexico, tropical storm warnings have already been issued for Florida Keys and the west coast of Florida south of Englewood. Winds above 40 mph are expected in this area on Friday night or early Saturday.
Tropical storm clocks are also in effect from near Sarasota and Bradenton south to Englewood and for the Atlantic coast to the Volusia-Brevar County line. Winds with tropical storms (39 mph or more) can arrive in these areas until Friday night or Saturday morning and can continue until Saturday afternoon or evening.
Tropical storm clocks have also been set up in western Cuba, including the capital, Havana, where tropical storms may be present on Friday. Such watches have also been issued for the northwestern Bahamas.
Clocks and warnings
(A clock is issued when tropical storm or hurricane conditions are possible within 48 hours. A warning is issued when these conditions are expected within 36 hours.)
The NHC expects this system to intensify in tropical storm Alex on Friday as it approaches Florida.
Current information and forecast route
(The highlighted red zone indicates the potential path of the center of the tropical system. It is important to note that impacts (especially heavy rain, heavy surf, coastal floods, winds) with each tropical cyclone usually extend beyond its forecast path.)
Fortunately, higher-level winds over the Gulf of Mexico will continue to be strong, providing strong wind shear, which should limit the intensity of this system.
These strong winds from the upper level should also make the system tilted, which means that most of its effects from torrential rains and gusts of wind can be relatively far to the east and southeast of the center.
Keep this in mind when considering the forecast path above, which is the potential path to the center of the storm.
The dry air over the Gulf of Mexico can also be absorbed by the system and help reduce its intensity.
Current satellite and wind shear analysis
(Areas of clouds are shown in white. Areas of strong wind shear, difference in wind speed and direction with altitude are shown in purple. Heavy wind shear is hostile to mature tropical cyclones and those trying to develop .)
Timeline and potential impacts
Here is a general schedule we expect from this system over the next few days.
-Friday: Heavy rain spreads in South Florida and continues in Western Cuba. Winds with tropical storms can arrive late at night.
-Saturday: The storm will move across the Florida peninsula with torrential rain, gusts of wind. Heavy rainfall is possible in the northwestern Bahamas. The system then moved east from Florida on Saturday night with slowly improving conditions.
-Sunday: The system will then track the southeast coast of the United States. Gusty winds could cause heavy surfing and dangerous rupturing currents along the southeast coast, even when much of the rain from this system remains at sea.
-Sunday-Monday: The system then moves into the open Atlantic Ocean off the east coast.
South Florida, including Florida Keys, western Cuba, and western Bahamas can take 4 to 10 inches of rain, with locally higher amounts, than this system. This is where rain flooding is most likely from this system.
Additional precipitation forecast until Sunday
Modest coastal flooding is possible in southern Florida from the Florida Keys to the Longboat Key near Sarasota, where flooding of up to 1 to 3 feet is possible at high tide.
The bay is a hot spot for June
The Gulf of Mexico, Campeche Bay and the Western Caribbean have historically been hotspots for development in June.
Last year, tropical storm Claudette formed, then quickly moved ashore in Louisiana and the deep south on Father’s Day weekend.
Starting points for all tropical / subtropical storms in the Atlantic in June 1950-2021
(Data: NOAA)
This is another reminder that now is a good time to develop or refresh your hurricane plan long before the first storm or hurricane of the season.
The main journalistic mission of Weather Company is to report on the latest weather news, the environment and the importance of science for our lives. This story does not necessarily represent the position of our parent company, IBM.
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